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Interesting cube action 2

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 18 November 2013, at 8:40 p.m.

In Response To: Interesting cube action 2 (David Presser)

White seems to be favored to win, so the take is trivial.

When does the doubling window open? I think this is one of those situations where blue should cube as soon as the theoretical window opens and there are market losers.

I don't do these calculations very often so I might be screwing it up, but i'm seeing a theoretical doubling point of 4/35 or about 11%.

IOW, if blue loses this with the cube at 4, he is 4% to win the match, while if he loses with the cube at 8 he is 0% for a risk of 4. If he wins with the cube at 4, he's 43% to win the match and if he wins with the cube at 8 he is 74% to win the match for a gain of 31.

r/(r+g) gives 4/35.

Market losers? For that I'd need to calculate whites takepoint on a recube to 8 and I'm all calculated-out at the moment. I'll just say that big numbers followed by a small roll will probably lose the market, and there are lots of those.

R/T - blue has very little to lose.

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