Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 22 November 2013, at 8:15 a.m.
In Response To: RO: bersker. Explanations? (David Levy)
Ad-hoc analysis is easy!
Like you, I picked 6/5, 6/4*. I had so little confidence, however, that I checked the bot instead of posting what was in essence a guess.
In retrospect, it is easy to find arguments to support my play, but I have learned to take my ad hoc analysis with a large grain of salt.
That said, here goes:
- Hitting looks right. Blue trails in the race and has great structure. Even after abandoning the 6pt, Blue will have his opponent out boarded 4-to-2. Because White has two blots in his board, he will not be eager to enter a hitting contest, but he may not have a decent alternative. Blue wants to win this game—and a fair number of gammons to boot—by hitting. If that is right, then the next question is why lift the 6pt.
- In case Blue is hit back, diversification is working. By moving to the 5pt, the 1s and 6s that cannot be used to enter from the bar will both cover or give Blue a return hit on the 4pt.
- Blue ducks a double hit when White rolls 42 or 66.
- White's 64 could be used to hit twice, but White may choose to cover one of his inside blots and hit only once. When Blue leaves a blot on the 6pt, White can unstack his 6pt to cover with the 4. When White must enter and hit with the 4, covering with the 6 strips his 8pt.
- Blue does not have to close out his opponent immediately in order to win. If this were a desperate last gasp effort to contain White after a late hit, then keeping both points slotted might make sense. Here, all Blue needs is to have his opponent dance or enter awkwardly. After that Blue can work to consolidate and perhaps complete a closeout.
What we have here is some happy talk suggesting that there is merit in playing 6/5 6/4*. What is missing is a concise argument detailing why it is imperative.
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