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RO: Robertie on "middling plays"

Posted By: David Levy
Date: Friday, 22 November 2013, at 8:20 p.m.

In Response To: Robertie on "middling plays" (David Levy)

OK, I did a shortish rollout of the two top plays. Robertie writes:

The safe play is 12/6 13/11. This guarantees that Black won't get hit this turn, but gives him only a minimal double next turn, one that doesn't earn him much equity.

The middling play is 13/9 11/9(2)! By moving the outside point from the 11-point to the 9-point, Black ensures that he can cash the game next turn as long as What doesn't hit...

Robertie is wrong. The cube after the safe play is strong and being hit is very bad.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 93
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBCdD----BAA--a-bcbab---:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.Rollout113/11 12/6eq: +0.873
Player:
Opponent:		73.23% (G:6.35% B:0.04%)
26.77% (G:1.84% B:0.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.863...+0.883) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 11/9(2)eq: +0.825 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		78.47% (G:9.72% B:0.14%)
21.53% (G:1.57% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.820...+0.831) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 31 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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