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Mochy v Michy (8-3 to 15)

Posted By: Snua
Date: Wednesday, 27 November 2013, at 3:15 p.m.

In Response To: Mochy v Michy (8-3 to 15) (Stick)

I kept asking myself (in a meaningful non-technical non-match-equity way) if it makes all that much difference to be down 12-3 as opposed to 10-3. With no gammons, you're surely going to snatch here for any sniff of recube. And I realised that I don't really have any more than a very basic gut feel for the gammon value.

But then I realised I also had no idea how many times white actually manages to come in without blue having rolled one of his 6's or board-making numbers which is what you need to know before you even consider the gammons. I thought this might happen about 16% of the time. Surely not enough once you count the gammons, however downgraded they might be, since how else is white going to win the game?

Messages In This Thread

• Mochy v Michy (8-3 to 15)
  Snua -- Wednesday, 27 November 2013, at 11:18 a.m.
  • Mochy v Michy (8-3 to 15)
    Stick -- Wednesday, 27 November 2013, at 12:47 p.m.
    • Mochy v Michy (8-3 to 15)
      Snua -- Wednesday, 27 November 2013, at 3:15 p.m.
  • Mochy v Michy (8-3 to 15)
    rew -- Wednesday, 27 November 2013, at 5:30 p.m.