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Your move ?

Posted By: Rod
Date: Wednesday, 4 December 2013, at 11:10 a.m.

In Response To: Your move ? (Sebastiaan Kuijs)

Can anyone jump in here? Or only Stick?

If it's only Stick then ignore my comments...

If you don't hit, you're playing all the way out so at least some numbers are bad for your opponent. But even then, only 6-4 is a terrible number. 6-3 and 6-2 are relatively bad (but still ok). And 6-1 isn't great but still works.

With the hit, 16 rolls leave you a favorite. It's just such a large number of good rolls that change the equity so much that it more than compensates for the extra gammons you lose when you do get hit.

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