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Your move ?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 4 December 2013, at 11:32 a.m.

In Response To: Your move ? (Sebastiaan Kuijs)

The play was clear to me to begin with but doubly clear as I asked myself the age old question that I so often preach. "What's the dmp play?"

At dmp we couldn't care less about all those extra gammons we lose and hitting 4/3* must win a ton more games. Also for those who don't always compare remember that often risky plays like this not only win more games but win more gammons further cutting into the ratio of gammons lost needed to overcome the dmp play.

Running all the way out, which is cleary better than running and stopping due to how sixes play, would leave [32 31 21 11] that put us in the air and make the six prime. That's 7 games out the window. After that there a few other numbers that are flat out winners for the most part too like [66 55 44]. There's still a big chunk of numbers, our hitting fives, that will leave us in a commanding position to say the least. [65 54 53 52 51 41] That accounts for 22/36 games.

The other 14 games we're left with either:

  • Needing to throw a miracle six. Not just any six, a miracle six. Our opponent will have run out with [43 61] so the six we throw to escape our last checker from behind the prime will still leave a double shot + unless it's [66], which leaves a single shot +, or [61] which buttons up.

  • We will need to perform immediately from the bar. We are in the air against the best four point board and still broken six prime needing to enter with something formidable to be in the game after our opp. rolls his 'lame ducks' of [42 22] where he points on us.

  • The next set of numbers, [63 62 33], leave us needing to enter and hit right away or our goose is cooked. Bowie style, Under Pressure.

  • Lastly, the worst number [64]. Now all we need to do is throw a six immediately (or an eight to buy us some time) or the game is all but over.

This doesn't sound like too tasty of a scenario. We can breakdown hitting much easier. We hit and 16 games we're happier than a pig in shit. We should now be clear game and equity favorites. We don't have these 16 games of upside when we simply run out. The other 20 games it's suckfest 2013 esp. with all the blots and double hitting going on but we had a gigantic slice of games where we're left with a happy face. There is really rarely a happy face if we play the passive 22/15.


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