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Rollout: (mis-) handling a bad roll

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 1:33 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout: (mis-) handling a bad roll (David Levy)

After a swing and a miss, couple of examples:

Money game
After 64 21/15 13/9 ... 52 6/1 6/4* ... Blue on roll

White109

2X '2X1X2X '3X2X '1O ' '

1X '3O1O2O3O3O '1O ' '2X
Blue111
Position ID: s+YGAyBcuxMIQA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.3180
0.6232 0.2435 0.0094 - 0.3768 0.1718 0.0095
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.3308
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.6692
3.No double +0.2756 -0.0552
Proper cube action:Double, take

After 64 13/3 ... 52 13/6 ... Blue on roll

White109

1X '2X2O2X3X3X2X ' ' ' '

1X '4O1O2O3O3O ' ' ' '1X
Blue107
Position ID: md0NAiC8dgcABg Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.2030)!

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.1786
0.5716 0.1454 0.0051 - 0.4284 0.1112 0.0041
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.2730
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.7270
3.Double, take +0.0700 -0.2030
Proper cube action:No double, take (21.8%)

After 64 21/15 13/9 ... 51 6/1 ... Blue on roll

White110

2X '2X1O2X2X2X2X '1O ' '

1X '3O1O2O3O3O '1O ' '2X
Blue107
Position ID: M9sGAyBcuxMIBA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.4080
0.6662 0.1610 0.0070 - 0.3338 0.0893 0.0030
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.5907
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.4093
3.No double +0.5770 -0.0137
Proper cube action:Double, take

After 64 13/3 ... 51 6/1 ... Blue on roll

White110

2X '2X2O2X2X2X2X ' ' ' '

1X '4O1O2O3O3O ' ' ' '2X
Blue107
Position ID: M9sGAyC8dgcABg Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.2574)!

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.1225
0.5463 0.1350 0.0037 - 0.4537 0.1062 0.0026
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.1959
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.8041
3.Double, take -0.0615 -0.2574
Proper cube action:No double, beaver (24.2%)

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