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RO & OTB

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 4:55 p.m.

In Response To: 42 for White (John O'Hagan)

Had this the other day vs. XG. I mistakenly thought I should definately hit with the 4 and then try to find a good 2 and settled on the third best play: 8/4* 9/7. A case of looking at plays A,B, and C when the right play is D. The correct play of 9/5 8/6 gives Black the chance to misplay the position, something that's hard to do after hitting loose. i.e. According to the XGR+ eval, Black should not make the 21-point anchor even if he rolls a 3! Doing so gives White all those PoH numbers on Black's resulting blot on the ace point. Several other numbers give Black some interesting options and he's bound to get some of them wrong.

Hitting loose only slightly increases your net g's which is not enough to offset the extra losses.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 91
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-bCBaBBBAA--bBaa-b-b-bb---:1:-1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
to play 42

1.Rollout19/5 8/6eq: +0.502
Player:
Opponent:
66.80% (G:30.41% B:3.64%)
33.20% (G:3.57% B:0.17%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.492...+0.512) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout18/4* 6/4eq: +0.455 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
64.22% (G:33.34% B:4.40%)
35.78% (G:5.71% B:0.29%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.446...+0.464) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout19/7 8/4* eq: +0.428 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
63.47% (G:32.29% B:4.31%)
36.53% (G:5.31% B:0.25%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.417...+0.438) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 19 seconds
4.Rollout18/4* 4/2eq: +0.405 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
61.96% (G:32.22% B:3.95%)
38.04% (G:4.17% B:0.16%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.395...+0.414) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 03 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

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