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On the Third Day of Christmas

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 13 December 2013, at 10:21 a.m.

More like a stocking stuffer esp. to the majority of you but it's an organizational start. Here are all the third roll rollouts where the opening roll was played 21$. When I undertook the third roll project I decided that I'd basically roll out all plays XGR+(+) deemed within' .020 and on occasion plays that were outside that threshold. My default settings were at least 5184 trials though you'll probably see a handful of rollouts where I stopped them short at either 2592 or 3888 trails because the correct play became clear quickly and I didn't want to waste the cpu cycles. The maximum trials I used were 15552 because the goal of this wasn't to figure out if Play A was better than Play B by .002 but to weed out any bigger errors. When you get to 15k trials there's not a whole lot of variance left to expect too much of a swing on what's reported. Usually +/- .004.

I did a quick count and it's around 107 files. Assuming on average two plays per rollout (obviously it will be more) and 7k trails per play that's around 1.7 million games. Not really that many.

If you find a rollout that has only one play rolled out stop and think. It is likely that the other candidate play(s) were rolled out in a different file. For example if I rollout XX-XX-31 and I also need to rollout XX-XX-11 it's likely one or two of the plays will overlap. When I noticed and they did I tried to use the same seed in the separate files and not reroll any plays. The same goes if you notice a sequence missing. Make sure that another sequence wouldn't contain the same plays.

If anyone notices a rollout you feel is missing please let me know. I will either find it or do it and add it to the collection. Any questions, inquire within'. Xavier, if you see this you can obviously use these for the Opening Book if you want to create a lot of work for yourself. If you don't, I'll be emailing you sometime this month anyway.

21$-XX-XX Rollouts


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