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Determining Jeremy's EPC: 84.6
Posted By: Paul Weaver In Response To: Remedial Race Analysis (Jeremy Bagai)
Date: Friday, 13 December 2013, at 4:16 p.m.
The two positions below are identical, except White is on roll in Left, while Blue is on roll in Right. The CPW in Left is 60.49% while the CPW in Right is 60.57%. These two CPW's are so close that I made the very naïve assumption that Blue's EPC must be very close to White's EPC, which XG says is 84.6.
Now that you know Blue's EPC, you can use this info to determine the wastage created by the outfield checkers.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 77Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 65
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-ECC--A----AA---A--fga-a--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 60.49% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) 60.46% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 39.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.210 +0.419 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.295 ±0.004 (+0.291..+0.299) Double/Take: +0.138 (-0.157) ±0.006 (+0.132..+0.143) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.705) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.4% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 51.3 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 77Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 65
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-ECC--A----AA---A--fga-a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 60.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 60.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 39.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.211 +0.418 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.341 ±0.004 (+0.337..+0.345) Double/Take: +0.178 (-0.163) ±0.005 (+0.173..+0.183) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.659) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.5% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 51.8 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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