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Determining Jeremy's EPC: 84.6

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Friday, 13 December 2013, at 4:16 p.m.

In Response To: Remedial Race Analysis (Jeremy Bagai)

The two positions below are identical, except White is on roll in Left, while Blue is on roll in Right. The CPW in Left is 60.49% while the CPW in Right is 60.57%. These two CPW's are so close that I made the very na´ve assumption that Blue's EPC must be very close to White's EPC, which XG says is 84.6.

Now that you know Blue's EPC, you can use this info to determine the wastage created by the outfield checkers.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 77
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 65
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ECC--A----AA---A--fga-a--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.49% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) 60.46% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.210 +0.419
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.295▒0.004 (+0.291..+0.299)
Double/Take:+0.138 (-0.157)▒0.006 (+0.132..+0.143)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.705)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 51.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 77
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 65
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ECC--A----AA---A--fga-a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 60.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.211 +0.418
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.341▒0.004 (+0.337..+0.345)
Double/Take:+0.178 (-0.163)▒0.005 (+0.173..+0.183)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.659)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 51.8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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