Remedial Race Analysis
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Remedial Race Analysis (Jeremy Bagai)
Date: Friday, 13 December 2013, at 4:19 p.m.
In Response To: Remedial Race Analysis (Jeremy Bagai)
White has something closer to a pips position than a flat position so the EPC is probably pip count + 8 = 74. Blue's EPC is harder to figure. 3.5 x 15 checkers is 52.5. I'd also penalize Blue a couple pips since his inner board isn't flush to the ace plus he might end up with an important gap on the 4 or 5-point. Then adjust for the outside checkers. I think it's their combined pip count minus 4 (at least that's what it is with two outside checkers). That's a total EPC of around 90.
A pips v pips race with EPC's of 74 to 90 means the raw pip counts would be roughly 67 to 83. Kleinman's racing formula gives the favorite about 87% in such a race.
Should we make an adjustment since this isn't really a pips v pips position? Not at all sure but I wouldn't. I'll go with White being an 87/13 favorite.
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