Robertie identifies race as a major factor in this position. He suggests hitting since we are not too far ahead in the race after the roll. But we do have a small race lead, so let's take a permanent asset instead. We are just not under big pressure to hit right now, especially given our blot on the ace point.
           
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 162 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 158
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aA-B-bB-D---bCa--d-cb-AB--:0:0:1:45:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 45 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/18 22/18 | eq: -0.241 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.10% (G:9.07% B:0.32%)
54.90% (G:17.45% B:0.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.252...-0.230) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/14* | eq: -0.298 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.54% (G:11.77% B:0.40%)
56.46% (G:18.03% B:0.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.311...-0.286) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32271713
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Make the race closer and hitting is almost as good as making the bar point:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 162 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aA-B-bB-C---bDa--d-cb-AB--:0:0:1:45:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 45 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/18 22/18 | eq: -0.313 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.50% (G:8.61% B:0.28%)
56.50% (G:18.22% B:0.65%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.316...-0.311) - [97.5%]
Duration: 5 hours 31 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/14* | eq: -0.317 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.22% (G:10.71% B:0.36%)
56.78% (G:18.27% B:0.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.320...-0.314) - [2.5%]
Duration: 5 hours 56 minutes |
|
| |
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32271713
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Go back to the original position and provide a direct cover for our ace point blot; hitting becomes a contender now.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 162 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 156
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aA-B-bC-C---bCa--d-cb-AB--:0:0:1:45:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 45 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/18 22/18 | eq: -0.188 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.36% (G:9.72% B:0.29%)
53.64% (G:16.34% B:0.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.191...-0.184) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/14* | eq: -0.197 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.47% (G:13.01% B:0.40%)
54.53% (G:16.47% B:0.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.201...-0.192) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes |
|
| |
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94004437
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Fuse the two variants together: closer race and direct cover for the ace point blot, and hitting finally becomes the right play.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 162 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aA-B-bC-B---bDa--d-cb-AB--:0:0:1:45:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 45 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/14* | eq: -0.246 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.39% (G:12.03% B:0.38%)
55.61% (G:17.19% B:0.82%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.258...-0.234) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/18 22/18 | eq: -0.279 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.25% (G:9.16% B:0.28%)
55.75% (G:18.12% B:0.66%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.290...-0.268) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 70516885
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10