Robertie identifies race as a major factor in this position. He suggests hitting since we are not too far ahead in the race after the roll. But we do have a small race lead, so let's take a permanent asset instead. We are just not under big pressure to hit right now, especially given our blot on the ace point.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 162  Unlimited Game Jacoby  pip: 158 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=aABbBDbCadcbAB:0:0:1:45:0:0:1:0:10 
Blue to play 45 
1.  Rollout^{1}  23/18 22/18  eq: 0.241 
 Player: Opponent:  45.10% (G:9.07% B:0.32%) 54.90% (G:17.45% B:0.57%)  Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.252...0.230)  [100.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 08 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  23/14*  eq: 0.298 (0.057) 
 Player: Opponent:  43.54% (G:11.77% B:0.40%) 56.46% (G:18.03% B:0.88%)  Conf.: ± 0.012 (0.311...0.286)  [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 09 seconds 


^{1} 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32271713 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Make the race closer and hitting is almost as good as making the bar point:
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 162  Unlimited Game Jacoby  pip: 163 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=aABbBCbDadcbAB:0:0:1:45:0:0:1:0:10 
Blue to play 45 
1.  Rollout^{1}  23/18 22/18  eq: 0.313 
 Player: Opponent:  43.50% (G:8.61% B:0.28%) 56.50% (G:18.22% B:0.65%)  Conf.: ± 0.003 (0.316...0.311)  [97.5%] Duration: 5 hours 31 minutes 

2.  Rollout^{1}  23/14*  eq: 0.317 (0.004) 
 Player: Opponent:  43.22% (G:10.71% B:0.36%) 56.78% (G:18.27% B:0.89%)  Conf.: ± 0.003 (0.320...0.314)  [2.5%] Duration: 5 hours 56 minutes 


^{1} 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32271713 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Go back to the original position and provide a direct cover for our ace point blot; hitting becomes a contender now.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 162  Unlimited Game Jacoby  pip: 156 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=aABbCCbCadcbAB:0:0:1:45:0:0:1:0:10 
Blue to play 45 
1.  Rollout^{1}  23/18 22/18  eq: 0.188 
 Player: Opponent:  46.36% (G:9.72% B:0.29%) 53.64% (G:16.34% B:0.57%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (0.191...0.184)  [99.9%] Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes 

2.  Rollout^{1}  23/14*  eq: 0.197 (0.009) 
 Player: Opponent:  45.47% (G:13.01% B:0.40%) 54.53% (G:16.47% B:0.78%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (0.201...0.192)  [0.1%] Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes 


^{1} 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 94004437 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Fuse the two variants together: closer race and direct cover for the ace point blot, and hitting finally becomes the right play.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 162  Unlimited Game Jacoby  pip: 161 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=aABbCBbDadcbAB:0:0:1:45:0:0:1:0:10 
Blue to play 45 
1.  Rollout^{1}  23/14*  eq: 0.246 
 Player: Opponent:  44.39% (G:12.03% B:0.38%) 55.61% (G:17.19% B:0.82%)  Conf.: ± 0.012 (0.258...0.234)  [100.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 16 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  23/18 22/18  eq: 0.279 (0.033) 
 Player: Opponent:  44.25% (G:9.16% B:0.28%) 55.75% (G:18.12% B:0.66%)  Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.290...0.268)  [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 09 seconds 


^{1} 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 70516885 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10