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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 15 December 2013, at 4:37 a.m.

In Response To: Blitz Pair (Paul Weaver)

Would you rather be shooting with a 6 or an ace? There's a lot more going on in this position than just counting Blue's numbers that hit loose on the 5pt.

Let me take this occasion to mention the concept of COC (close-out count). In Position 6 below, Blue needs to roll a minimum of 31 pips to close his board. In Position 11 below, Blue has a COC of 36. It is usually better to have a lower COC (assuming you have no dilly builders) because it means you need fewer rolls to close your board, reducing the chance that White anchors.

Additionally, Blue has duplicated his own 6s (24/18 and 11/5*) in Position 11. Blue is more diversified in Position 6, with hitting aces and splitting 6s.

I am also posting the rollout results of the four other members of this happy family.

Position 6.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 134
score: 0

Blue is NevzatDogan
XGID=aB-BBaC-----cDa--c-d-b--B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.57% (G:39.65% B:1.43%) 66.51% (G:42.69% B:1.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.43% (G:8.61% B:0.46%) 33.49% (G:8.81% B:0.53%)
Cubeless Equities +0.632 +1.355
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.653 (-0.347)0.006 (+0.647..+0.659)
Double/Take:+1.088 (+0.088)0.012 (+1.076..+1.100)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 11.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is NevzatDogan
XGID=aB-BBaB----AcDa--c-d-b--B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.73% (G:37.75% B:1.38%) 64.66% (G:40.53% B:1.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.27% (G:9.45% B:0.50%) 35.34% (G:9.70% B:0.58%)
Cubeless Equities +0.566 +1.220
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.633 (-0.307)0.008 (+0.625..+0.641)
Double/Take:+0.9400.014 (+0.926..+0.954)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.060)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 7.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is NevzatDogan
XGID=aB-BBaBA----cDa--c-d-b--B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.34% (G:37.96% B:1.31%) 65.00% (G:40.38% B:1.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.66% (G:8.83% B:0.43%) 35.00% (G:9.29% B:0.51%)
Cubeless Equities +0.587 +1.239
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.636 (-0.326)0.006 (+0.630..+0.643)
Double/Take:+0.9620.012 (+0.950..+0.974)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.038)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 8.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is NevzatDogan
XGID=aB-BBaB-A---cDa--c-d-b--B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.45% (G:38.37% B:1.30%) 65.52% (G:40.48% B:1.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.55% (G:9.06% B:0.47%) 34.48% (G:9.13% B:0.53%)
Cubeless Equities +0.591 +1.263
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.653 (-0.342)0.007 (+0.646..+0.660)
Double/Take:+0.9950.012 (+0.982..+1.007)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.005)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:80.2%
Duration: 15 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 9.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is NevzatDogan
XGID=aB-BBaB--A--cDa--c-d-b--B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.18% (G:37.59% B:1.28%) 64.10% (G:40.57% B:1.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.82% (G:9.64% B:0.50%) 35.90% (G:9.94% B:0.59%)
Cubeless Equities +0.551 +1.191
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.609 (-0.298)0.007 (+0.602..+0.617)
Double/Take:+0.9070.012 (+0.895..+0.919)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.093)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 10.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is NevzatDogan
XGID=aB-BBaB---A-cDa--c-d-b--B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.26% (G:38.03% B:1.36%) 65.09% (G:40.25% B:1.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.74% (G:9.21% B:0.46%) 34.91% (G:9.51% B:0.53%)
Cubeless Equities +0.583 +1.235
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.642 (-0.317)0.008 (+0.635..+0.650)
Double/Take:+0.9600.012 (+0.948..+0.972)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.040)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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