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Rollout Results Posted
Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 15 December 2013, at 4:37 a.m.
In Response To: Blitz Pair (Paul Weaver)
Would you rather be shooting with a 6 or an ace? There's a lot more going on in this position than just counting Blue's numbers that hit loose on the 5pt.
Let me take this occasion to mention the concept of COC (closeout count). In Position 6 below, Blue needs to roll a minimum of 31 pips to close his board. In Position 11 below, Blue has a COC of 36. It is usually better to have a lower COC (assuming you have no dilly builders) because it means you need fewer rolls to close your board, reducing the chance that White anchors.
Additionally, Blue has duplicated his own 6s (24/18 and 11/5*) in Position 11. Blue is more diversified in Position 6, with hitting aces and splitting 6s.
I am also posting the rollout results of the four other members of this happy family.
Position 6.
White is peever
score: 0
pip: 151Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 134
score: 0
Blue is NevzatDoganXGID=aBBBaCcDacdbB:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 65.57% (G:39.65% B:1.43%) 66.51% (G:42.69% B:1.39%) Opponent Winning Chances: 34.43% (G:8.61% B:0.46%) 33.49% (G:8.81% B:0.53%) Cubeless Equities +0.632 +1.355 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.653 (0.347) ±0.006 (+0.647..+0.659) Double/Take: +1.088 (+0.088) ±0.012 (+1.076..+1.100) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 12 minutes 05 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 11.
White is peever
score: 0
pip: 151Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 139
score: 0
Blue is NevzatDoganXGID=aBBBaBAcDacdbB:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.73% (G:37.75% B:1.38%) 64.66% (G:40.53% B:1.41%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.27% (G:9.45% B:0.50%) 35.34% (G:9.70% B:0.58%) Cubeless Equities +0.566 +1.220 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.633 (0.307) ±0.008 (+0.625..+0.641) Double/Take: +0.940 ±0.014 (+0.926..+0.954) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.060) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 13 minutes 03 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 7.
White is peever
score: 0
pip: 151Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 135
score: 0
Blue is NevzatDoganXGID=aBBBaBAcDacdbB:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 64.34% (G:37.96% B:1.31%) 65.00% (G:40.38% B:1.36%) Opponent Winning Chances: 35.66% (G:8.83% B:0.43%) 35.00% (G:9.29% B:0.51%) Cubeless Equities +0.587 +1.239 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.636 (0.326) ±0.006 (+0.630..+0.643) Double/Take: +0.962 ±0.012 (+0.950..+0.974) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.038) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 15 minutes 04 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 8.
White is peever
score: 0
pip: 151Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 136
score: 0
Blue is NevzatDoganXGID=aBBBaBAcDacdbB:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 64.45% (G:38.37% B:1.30%) 65.52% (G:40.48% B:1.31%) Opponent Winning Chances: 35.55% (G:9.06% B:0.47%) 34.48% (G:9.13% B:0.53%) Cubeless Equities +0.591 +1.263 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.653 (0.342) ±0.007 (+0.646..+0.660) Double/Take: +0.995 ±0.012 (+0.982..+1.007) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.005) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 80.2% Duration: 15 minutes 44 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 9.
White is peever
score: 0
pip: 151Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 137
score: 0
Blue is NevzatDoganXGID=aBBBaBAcDacdbB:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.18% (G:37.59% B:1.28%) 64.10% (G:40.57% B:1.31%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.82% (G:9.64% B:0.50%) 35.90% (G:9.94% B:0.59%) Cubeless Equities +0.551 +1.191 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.609 (0.298) ±0.007 (+0.602..+0.617) Double/Take: +0.907 ±0.012 (+0.895..+0.919) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.093) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 14 minutes 42 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 10.
White is peever
score: 0
pip: 151Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 138
score: 0
Blue is NevzatDoganXGID=aBBBaBAcDacdbB:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 64.26% (G:38.03% B:1.36%) 65.09% (G:40.25% B:1.39%) Opponent Winning Chances: 35.74% (G:9.21% B:0.46%) 34.91% (G:9.51% B:0.53%) Cubeless Equities +0.583 +1.235 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.642 (0.317) ±0.008 (+0.635..+0.650) Double/Take: +0.960 ±0.012 (+0.948..+0.972) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.040) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 13 minutes 32 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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