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Rollout +
Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 21 December 2013, at 4:41 p.m.
In Response To: Another Backgammon Position (Stick)
At the score our take point is the same as our equity if we passed since we'll be playing for the match. So that would be 4a 1a Crawford or 18.5%.
As I was hoping, a couple people here mentioned the exact way I went about it OtB. Reference position. (see below rollout)
White is Player 1
score: 1
pip: 475 point match pip: 48
score: 2
Blue is Player 2XGID=aDCBBCAbbf:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:5:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 80.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 80.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 19.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 19.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.615 +0.966 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.840 (0.126) ±0.002 (+0.838..+0.842) Redouble/Take: +0.966 ±0.003 (+0.963..+0.969) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.034) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23502712
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 4.3 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Knowing the position below is about 15.5% should allow us to make a solid estimate in our original problem. Blue is way worse in having the six point already open and somewhat worse in comparison with his spare distribution. I would roughly cancel out the spare distribution of Blue v. the backed up points of White but give a big nod in White's favor due to the point already being open.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 39Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 60
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aBBBCCBAdf:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 21
1. Rollout^{1} 9/6 eq: +0.653
Player:
Opponent:84.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
15.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.650...+0.656)
Duration: 5.0 seconds^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23502712
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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