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Rollout +

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 21 December 2013, at 4:41 p.m.

In Response To: Another Backgammon Position (Stick)

At the score our take point is the same as our equity if we passed since we'll be playing for the match. So that would be 4a 1a Crawford or 18.5%.

As I was hoping, a couple people here mentioned the exact way I went about it OtB. Reference position. (see below rollout)





White is Player 1

score: 1
pip: 47
5 point match
pip: 48
score: 2

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aDCBBC---A----------b-b-f-:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 80.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 19.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.615 +0.966
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.840 (-0.126)0.002 (+0.838..+0.842)
Redouble/Take:+0.9660.003 (+0.963..+0.969)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.034)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23502712
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Knowing the position below is about 15.5% should allow us to make a solid estimate in our original problem. Blue is way worse in having the six point already open and somewhat worse in comparison with his spare distribution. I would roughly cancel out the spare distribution of Blue v. the backed up points of White but give a big nod in White's favor due to the point already being open.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 39
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 60
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCCB--A-------------df-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout19/6eq: +0.653
Player:
Opponent:
84.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
15.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.650...+0.656)
Duration: 5.0 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23502712
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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