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Rollout +

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 21 December 2013, at 4:41 p.m.

In Response To: Another Backgammon Position (Stick)

At the score our take point is the same as our equity if we passed since we'll be playing for the match. So that would be 4a 1a Crawford or 18.5%.

As I was hoping, a couple people here mentioned the exact way I went about it OtB. Reference position. (see below rollout)

		White is Player 1 score: 1 pip: 47 5 point match pip: 48 score: 2 Blue is Player 2
XGID=aDCBBC---A----------b-b-f-:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	80.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	80.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	19.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	19.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.615	+0.966
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.840 (-0.126)	±0.002 (+0.838..+0.842)
Redouble/Take:	+0.966	±0.003 (+0.963..+0.969)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.034)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 23502712 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 4.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Knowing the position below is about 15.5% should allow us to make a solid estimate in our original problem. Blue is way worse in having the six point already open and somewhat worse in comparison with his spare distribution. I would roughly cancel out the spare distribution of Blue v. the backed up points of White but give a big nod in White's favor due to the point already being open.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 39 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 60 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCCB--A-------------df-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	9/6	eq: +0.653
	Player: Opponent: 84.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 15.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.650...+0.656) Duration: 5.0 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 23502712 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Another Backgammon Position
  Stick -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 5:07 p.m.
  • Another Backgammon Position
    Keene -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 5:24 p.m.
  • Another Backgammon Position
    Rod -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 6:53 p.m.
  • Another Backgammon Position
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 10:25 p.m.
    • Another Backgammon Position
      Keene -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 10:40 p.m.
      • Another Backgammon Position
        ah_clem -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 11:11 p.m.
  • Another Backgammon Position
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 20 December 2013, at 4:43 a.m.
    • Another Backgammon Position
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 20 December 2013, at 5:15 a.m.
  • Rollout +
    Stick -- Saturday, 21 December 2013, at 4:41 p.m.