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DMP: Tap that ass?

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 22 December 2013, at 6:52 a.m.

In Response To: DMP: Tap that ass? (Sam Pottle)

 White is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 83 7 point match pip: 116 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--A-BaC-CBB--Ba--a-bbcbab-:1:-1:1:64:5:6:0:7:10
Blue to play 64

### What me worry?

Nice catch, Sam. One of the reasons I sometimes post the diagram along with my analysis is so that readers can count along with me. Although I am quite good at counting to 10, making it all the way to 36 continues to be a problem.

Over the board, I am not fast enough to do the sort of counting I attempted in my post. Instead, I make gross assessments such as “White will have a lot of numbers that win outright if Blue does not hit now.” And, “White will probably have fewer outright winners if Blue hits. Besides, not all hits are fatal.” What I did in my post was attempt to quantify the intuitive conclusion I had already arrived at.

With your corrections, would I change my play? Three points come to mind.

• The math—gross as it is—now comes out even, 36% to 36%.
• In my rough estimate, I gave all of Blue’s dances to White. In reality, White will fail to cover perhaps 30% of the time. Sometimes, he won’t even be able to lift his blot. An adjustment based on this observation will tip the balance back in favor of hitting.
• Even if the plays were tied, Blue will usually have to hit at some point to turn this game around. Often, that will mean taking a chance. Now may be as good a time as any. Not hitting could translate into giving White this chance to escape, and then having to hit loose next turn anyway.

So, at the end of the day, I still favor hitting.

Mike

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