DMP: Tap that ass?

White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 83

7 point match

pip: 116
score: 5

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--A-BaC-CBB--Ba--a-bbcbab-:1:-1:1:64:5:6:0:7:10

Blue to play 64

What me worry?

Nice catch, Sam. One of the reasons I sometimes post the diagram along with my analysis is so that readers can count along with me. Although I am quite good at counting to 10, making it all the way to 36 continues to be a problem.

Over the board, I am not fast enough to do the sort of counting I attempted in my post. Instead, I make gross assessments such as “White will have a lot of numbers that win outright if Blue does not hit now.” And, “White will probably have fewer outright winners if Blue hits. Besides, not all hits are fatal.” What I did in my post was attempt to quantify the intuitive conclusion I had already arrived at.

With your corrections, would I change my play? Three points come to mind.

The math—gross as it is—now comes out even, 36% to 36%.
In my rough estimate, I gave all of Blue’s dances to White. In reality, White will fail to cover perhaps 30% of the time. Sometimes, he won’t even be able to lift his blot. An adjustment based on this observation will tip the balance back in favor of hitting.
Even if the plays were tied, Blue will usually have to hit at some point to turn this game around. Often, that will mean taking a chance. Now may be as good a time as any. Not hitting could translate into giving White this chance to escape, and then having to hit loose next turn anyway.

So, at the end of the day, I still favor hitting.

Mike

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