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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 25 December 2013, at 3:39 p.m.

In Response To: Down 108 Pips at –4–2, Blue Contemplates Doubling (Paul Weaver)

The rollout results of four positions are posted below. How can you determine the cube action over the board? I have no clue, except to say the following: Backgammon is a very difficult game. It is helpful to study and learn as many reference positions as possible.

Position 1. White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 111 4 point match pip: 219 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-----BBB---abB-b-abbcBBBbA:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:4:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 61.30% (G:15.04% B:1.43%) 61.33% (G:15.23% B:1.60%) Opponent Winning Chances: 38.70% (G:26.04% B:4.78%) 38.67% (G:26.28% B:4.85%) Cubeless Equities -0.061 +0.835 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.818 (-0.017) ±0.013 (+0.805..+0.831) Double/Take: +0.835 ±0.013 (+0.822..+0.848) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.165) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 96.3% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 3 hours 13 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 2. White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 112 4 point match pip: 219 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-----BBB---abB-b-abcbBBBbA:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:4:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 60.86% (G:14.48% B:1.49%) 60.84% (G:14.69% B:1.62%) Opponent Winning Chances: 39.14% (G:26.17% B:4.78%) 39.16% (G:26.47% B:4.89%) Cubeless Equities -0.076 +0.787 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.776 (-0.011) ±0.013 (+0.763..+0.788) Double/Take: +0.787 ±0.014 (+0.773..+0.800) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.213) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 87.4% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 3 hours 42 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 3. White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 107 4 point match pip: 219 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-----BBB---abB-b-abbbBBBcA:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:4:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.49% (G:16.46% B:1.52%) 63.51% (G:16.70% B:1.77%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.51% (G:24.52% B:3.85%) 36.49% (G:25.13% B:4.72%) Cubeless Equities +0.024 +1.005 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.958 (-0.042) ±0.013 (+0.945..+0.971) Double/Take: +1.005 (+0.005) ±0.017 (+0.988..+1.023) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 71.8% Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 4. White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 112 4 point match pip: 221 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=------DB---abB-b-abcbBBBbA:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:4:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 59.81% (G:13.16% B:1.27%) 59.86% (G:13.24% B:1.32%) Opponent Winning Chances: 40.19% (G:27.27% B:5.44%) 40.14% (G:27.62% B:5.31%) Cubeless Equities -0.132 +0.674 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.674 (-0.001) ±0.015 (+0.659..+0.688) Double/Take: +0.674 ±0.015 (+0.659..+0.689) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.326) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 52.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 4 hours 28 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Down 108 Pips at –4–2, Blue Contemplates Doubling
  Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 24 December 2013, at 10:15 p.m.
  • Down 108 Pips at –4–2, Blue Contemplates Doubling
    Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 25 December 2013, at 12:18 a.m.
  • Down 108 Pips at –4–2, Blue Contemplates Doubling
    Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 25 December 2013, at 7:27 a.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted
    Paul Weaver -- Wednesday, 25 December 2013, at 3:39 p.m.