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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 25 December 2013, at 3:39 p.m.

In Response To: Down 108 Pips at 𣯔, Blue Contemplates Doubling (Paul Weaver)

The rollout results of four positions are posted below. How can you determine the cube action over the board? I have no clue, except to say the following: Backgammon is a very difficult game. It is helpful to study and learn as many reference positions as possible.

Position 1.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 111
4 point match
pip: 219
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BBB---abB-b-abbcBBBbA:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.30% (G:15.04% B:1.43%) 61.33% (G:15.23% B:1.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.70% (G:26.04% B:4.78%) 38.67% (G:26.28% B:4.85%)
Cubeless Equities -0.061 +0.835
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.818 (-0.017)0.013 (+0.805..+0.831)
Double/Take:+0.8350.013 (+0.822..+0.848)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.165)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:96.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 13 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 2.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 112
4 point match
pip: 219
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BBB---abB-b-abcbBBBbA:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.86% (G:14.48% B:1.49%) 60.84% (G:14.69% B:1.62%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.14% (G:26.17% B:4.78%) 39.16% (G:26.47% B:4.89%)
Cubeless Equities -0.076 +0.787
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.776 (-0.011)0.013 (+0.763..+0.788)
Double/Take:+0.7870.014 (+0.773..+0.800)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.213)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:87.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 42 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 3.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 107
4 point match
pip: 219
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BBB---abB-b-abbbBBBcA:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.49% (G:16.46% B:1.52%) 63.51% (G:16.70% B:1.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.51% (G:24.52% B:3.85%) 36.49% (G:25.13% B:4.72%)
Cubeless Equities +0.024 +1.005
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.958 (-0.042)0.013 (+0.945..+0.971)
Double/Take:+1.005 (+0.005)0.017 (+0.988..+1.023)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:71.8%
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 4.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 112
4 point match
pip: 221
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=------DB---abB-b-abcbBBBbA:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.81% (G:13.16% B:1.27%) 59.86% (G:13.24% B:1.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.19% (G:27.27% B:5.44%) 40.14% (G:27.62% B:5.31%)
Cubeless Equities -0.132 +0.674
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.674 (-0.001)0.015 (+0.659..+0.688)
Double/Take:+0.6740.015 (+0.659..+0.689)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.326)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:52.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 28 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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