501 Essential Backgammon Problems #360

Cover or Run?

Blue needs 52 pips plus half a roll to save the gammon. At 8 pips per roll, he will need 7 rolls to accomplish that. Unfortunately, White needs only 10 crossovers to win. He will probably be off in 6 rolls or less. Saving the gammon is going to be difficult. Against that backdrop, Blue needs to find a play for this 32.

The first decision is whether to split off the 23pt in an effort to shake loose a blot when White rolls a 2. I think now is the time. Otherwise, White can play all his numbers safely on his next turn.

Next is the choice whether to cover inside or not. Moving 5/3 wastes two valuable pips that could be used to race. White will leave a blot whenever he rolls 23, 24, 25, or 26. Blue will be 30% to hit. The compound probability that White leaves a blot that Blue hits is (8/36)*(11/36) = 88/1296 = 6.8%. Is Blue’s chance of saving the gammon so low that he should cater to his 6.8% chance of hitting?

I am not sure!

My first instinct was to make the 4pt. Now that I have computed the 6.8% figure, however, I am going to take the extra crossover.

U (Up) = 23/18

Mike

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