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61P-62R-52S-22N-32 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 2 January 2014, at 7:18 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: 61P-62R-52S-22N-32? (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----EBCa--cCb--c-c-bA-A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout124/22 6/3eq: -0.3418
Player:
Opponent:
40.73% (G:9.95% B:0.34%)
59.27% (G:12.05% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ±0.0057 (-0.3475...-0.3361) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 7/5eq: -0.3746 (-0.0327)
Player:
Opponent:
40.17% (G:12.10% B:0.44%)
59.83% (G:15.94% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ±0.0065 (-0.3811...-0.3681) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 53 seconds
3.Rollout17/4 6/4eq: -0.3754 (-0.0335)
Player:
Opponent:
40.29% (G:11.92% B:0.47%)
59.71% (G:16.13% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ±0.0061 (-0.3814...-0.3693) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 59 seconds
4.Rollout224/22 8/5eq: -0.3832 (-0.0413)
Player:
Opponent:
39.73% (G:9.44% B:0.32%)
60.27% (G:11.92% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ±0.0071 (-0.3902...-0.3761) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 22 seconds
5.Rollout224/22 13/10eq: -0.3859 (-0.0440)
Player:
Opponent:
39.62% (G:9.45% B:0.34%)
60.38% (G:12.20% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ±0.0080 (-0.3939...-0.3779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 27871070
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 27871070
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-Nov-02
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
61P-62R-52S-22N-32-tm.xgp
[E P33 p34 C41 S44] "<=7**5
[E C45 P56 S57 p58 T84] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Point or Anchor?

I was so busy rolling out 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-roll positions last year that this one sat in my in-basket for three months. And since then, another two months have gone by!

The key here is to indentify the need to anchor. Considering that there is no obvious alternative that hits (in a desirable way) or safely makes a strong offensive point, that part is relatively straightforward. The choice would be much more difficult if you could make your 4pt or 5pt without leaving three vulnerable blots.

After making the anchor, you have to recognize that the spares on the 8pt and midpoint are already exactly where you want them. It’s the stack on the 6pt that is the problem.

I am not sure why Timothy Chow left the pointing plays out of his rollout. They rank 2nd and 3rd in this rollout.

It is interesting to consider how 42 should be played here. That roll gives you three choices: point, anchor, or hit-and-anchor.

Mike

 

61P-62R-52S-22N-32 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Supremo 868701023 –336 [E S35 C45] /1 Timothy Chow
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 27871070 –341.8 [E P33 p34 C41 S44] "<=7**5 Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.03 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] –325.5 [E C45 P56 S57 p58 T84] "&e Taper_Mike
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc 736925346 –322.283 n[E C41 p42 S46 P53] '/0.360t Taper_Mike

61P-62R-52S-22N-32 — Gammon Go
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
XG 1.20 3-ply, SI: Huge, MET: XG 1 +63 g[P p2 E29 C59 S61 T67 H83] '<2**0.5 6stones

Key: C = Cross [24/22, 8/5], D = Down = T = sTack/Tower = [13/8], E = Each [24/22, 6/3], H = Hit [6/1*],
P = Point [8/5, 7/5], p = point [7/4, 6/4], S = Split = Z = Reverse split [24/22, 13/10]

Explanation of nacbracs

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