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***Rollout*** Extra Wins Vs. Extra Gammons

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Friday, 3 January 2014, at 3:03 a.m.

In Response To: ***Rollout*** Extra Wins Vs. Extra Gammons (Mr Majestyk)

To be honest, I almost never do. I could spend a lot of time trying to calculate something like this, and probably in the end wouldn't be sure my calculations were good. Also, just by looking at the position, one can see that there is not much equity at stake. If I had to do it though, I would start out by estimating how many wins greedy play gives up compared to DMP play. So, 4 extra immediate shots get hit by 11 numbers – that is extra ~3.5. I will have 5-6 checkers off and he got some work to do to close me out. He is a favorite, lets give him 2% extra wins. Should I count shot equity after that? I would say no, because it also costs him to stay longer – say it balances each other out. So, to compensate for 2% loss I need about 4.5% extra gammons. From experience I know that greedy play gains about 5% gammons. I suppose one can try to calculate racing chances to save a gammon, but that is just more work and I doubt it would give a precise figure anyway. So, it looks like it worth going for the gammon.

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