Although I made these rollouts, I am still not sure how to incorporate lesson from this position to what I already know. From what I understand the bar point has a low cost-risk and its benefits are longterm (less shots for white, he cannot escape as easily and therefore blue will win a few extra gammons and finally blue can bring his checkers around more easily if missed).
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 128 | | 5 point match | pip: 117
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bBB-aD-B---bCB----c-abbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: +0.369 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.13% (G:16.12% B:1.41%)
31.87% (G:8.99% B:0.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.362...+0.377) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 14/13 14/8 | eq: +0.337 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.48% (G:9.27% B:0.47%)
31.52% (G:4.33% B:0.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.330...+0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/6 | eq: +0.221 (-0.149) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.43% (G:12.39% B:0.69%)
35.57% (G:7.58% B:0.12%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 14/8 6/5* | eq: +0.164 (-0.206) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.62% (G:19.07% B:1.74%)
38.38% (G:16.70% B:0.22%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 6/5* | eq: +0.154 (-0.216) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.09% (G:20.80% B:1.82%)
38.91% (G:19.27% B:0.28%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller++ | 8/2 6/5* | eq: +0.085 (-0.285) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.28% (G:18.09% B:1.41%)
40.72% (G:17.92% B:0.25%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
If white does not have that blot on the 4 point, then the top 2 options seem to be tied.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 130 | | 5 point match | pip: 117
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bBB-aD-B---bCB----d--bbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: +0.375 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.80% (G:15.35% B:1.07%)
31.20% (G:8.73% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.372...+0.378) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 14/13 14/8 | eq: +0.367 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.77% (G:8.83% B:0.42%)
30.23% (G:3.66% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.365...+0.370) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 01 second |
|
| |
1 8722 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
If blue has the 2 and the 4 points instead of the 3 and 2, then the 2 top plays seem to be tied as well. While making the bar point is now a bit better than before, because of blue's better board, 14/13 14/8 gains even more equity as blue will have less awkward numbers next turn.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 128 | | 5 point match | pip: 119
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bB-BaD-B---bCB----c-abbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: +0.387 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.41% (G:17.08% B:1.57%)
31.59% (G:9.32% B:0.16%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.386...+0.388) - [90.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout2 | 14/13 14/8 | eq: +0.386 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.47% (G:11.35% B:0.74%)
30.53% (G:4.38% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.385...+0.387) - [9.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute |
|
| |
1 70175 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 70178 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
If blue has the 3 and 4 points then making the bar point is clear.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 128 | | 5 point match | pip: 121
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b-BBaD-B---bCB----c-abbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: +0.488 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.02% (G:19.69% B:1.85%)
28.98% (G:9.00% B:0.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.481...+0.495) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 14/13 14/8 | eq: +0.393 (-0.095) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 70.36% (G:10.69% B:0.55%)
29.64% (G:4.65% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.388...+0.399) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
If the 2 checkers form the 14 point are stacked on the 13 point, then things become normal again and the safe 13/6 becomes best. Blue will have less return shots and also if he gets hit next turn, he will not have the 14 as a landing safety point.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 128 | | 5 point match | pip: 115
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bBB-aD-B---bE-----c-abbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/6 | eq: +0.311 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.23% (G:10.12% B:0.51%)
32.77% (G:5.20% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.305...+0.317) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: +0.286 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.66% (G:13.21% B:1.06%)
33.34% (G:10.07% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.278...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
In the variant below, hitting is a top contender, but really many things are different. If blue hits here he will only leave 1 blot, blue is 4 more pips behind and has the 9 point instead of the 8.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 128 | | 5 point match | pip: 121
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bBB-aD--B--bC-B---c-abbb-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 9/7 | eq: +0.313 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.59% (G:18.97% B:1.61%)
34.41% (G:12.46% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.311...+0.314) - [83.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/5* | eq: +0.312 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.83% (G:20.57% B:1.92%)
35.17% (G:12.34% B:0.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.310...+0.313) - [16.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 15/13 15/9 | eq: +0.296 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.83% (G:10.28% B:0.54%)
33.17% (G:5.63% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.293...+0.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| |
1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 7426 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Finally, here is the initial position with the cube centered.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 128 | | 5 point match | pip: 117
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bBB-aD-B---bCB----c-abbb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: +0.699 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.90% (G:16.64% B:1.49%)
32.10% (G:9.31% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.689...+0.709) - [98.2%]
Duration: 7 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 14/13 14/8 | eq: +0.684 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.25% (G:9.63% B:0.45%)
31.75% (G:4.20% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.674...+0.694) - [1.8%]
Duration: 9 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2