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Retutning home, feeling adventurous? - RO & Variants

Posted By: smcrtorchs
Date: Sunday, 5 January 2014, at 5:54 p.m.

In Response To: Retutning home, feeling adventurous? (smcrtorchs)

Although I made these rollouts, I am still not sure how to incorporate lesson from this position to what I already know. From what I understand the bar point has a low cost-risk and its benefits are longterm (less shots for white, he cannot escape as easily and therefore blue will win a few extra gammons and finally blue can bring his checkers around more easily if missed).





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
5 point match
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBB-aD-B---bCB----c-abbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.369
Player:
Opponent:
68.13% (G:16.12% B:1.41%)
31.87% (G:8.99% B:0.17%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.362...+0.377) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout114/13 14/8eq: +0.337 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
68.48% (G:9.27% B:0.47%)
31.52% (G:4.33% B:0.09%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.330...+0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 52 seconds
3.XG Roller++13/6eq: +0.221 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent:
64.43% (G:12.39% B:0.69%)
35.57% (G:7.58% B:0.12%)
4.XG Roller++14/8 6/5* eq: +0.164 (-0.206)
Player:
Opponent:
61.62% (G:19.07% B:1.74%)
38.38% (G:16.70% B:0.22%)
5.XG Roller++13/7 6/5* eq: +0.154 (-0.216)
Player:
Opponent:
61.09% (G:20.80% B:1.82%)
38.91% (G:19.27% B:0.28%)
6.XG Roller++8/2 6/5* eq: +0.085 (-0.285)
Player:
Opponent:
59.28% (G:18.09% B:1.41%)
40.72% (G:17.92% B:0.25%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



If white does not have that blot on the 4 point, then the top 2 options seem to be tied.







White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130
5 point match
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBB-aD-B---bCB----d--bbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.375
Player:
Opponent:
68.80% (G:15.35% B:1.07%)
31.20% (G:8.73% B:0.20%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.372...+0.378) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout114/13 14/8eq: +0.367 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
69.77% (G:8.83% B:0.42%)
30.23% (G:3.66% B:0.06%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.365...+0.370) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 01 second
1 8722 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



If blue has the 2 and the 4 points instead of the 3 and 2, then the 2 top plays seem to be tied as well. While making the bar point is now a bit better than before, because of blue's better board, 14/13 14/8 gains even more equity as blue will have less awkward numbers next turn.







White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
5 point match
pip: 119
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-BaD-B---bCB----c-abbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.387
Player:
Opponent:
68.41% (G:17.08% B:1.57%)
31.59% (G:9.32% B:0.16%)
Conf.: 0.001 (+0.386...+0.388) - [90.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
2.Rollout214/13 14/8eq: +0.386 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
69.47% (G:11.35% B:0.74%)
30.53% (G:4.38% B:0.06%)
Conf.: 0.001 (+0.385...+0.387) - [9.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
1 70175 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 70178 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



If blue has the 3 and 4 points then making the bar point is clear.







White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
5 point match
pip: 121
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-BBaD-B---bCB----c-abbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.488
Player:
Opponent:
71.02% (G:19.69% B:1.85%)
28.98% (G:9.00% B:0.13%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.481...+0.495) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout114/13 14/8eq: +0.393 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
70.36% (G:10.69% B:0.55%)
29.64% (G:4.65% B:0.05%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.388...+0.399) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 10 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



If the 2 checkers form the 14 point are stacked on the 13 point, then things become normal again and the safe 13/6 becomes best. Blue will have less return shots and also if he gets hit next turn, he will not have the 14 as a landing safety point.







White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
5 point match
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBB-aD-B---bE-----c-abbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/6eq: +0.311
Player:
Opponent:
67.23% (G:10.12% B:0.51%)
32.77% (G:5.20% B:0.07%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.305...+0.317) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.286 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
66.66% (G:13.21% B:1.06%)
33.34% (G:10.07% B:0.10%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.278...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 44 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



In the variant below, hitting is a top contender, but really many things are different. If blue hits here he will only leave 1 blot, blue is 4 more pips behind and has the 9 point instead of the 8.







White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
5 point match
pip: 121
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBB-aD--B--bC-B---c-abbb-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout113/7 9/7eq: +0.313
Player:
Opponent:
65.59% (G:18.97% B:1.61%)
34.41% (G:12.46% B:0.24%)
Conf.: 0.001 (+0.311...+0.314) - [83.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout113/5* eq: +0.312 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
64.83% (G:20.57% B:1.92%)
35.17% (G:12.34% B:0.21%)
Conf.: 0.001 (+0.310...+0.313) - [16.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
3.Rollout215/13 15/9eq: +0.296 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
66.83% (G:10.28% B:0.54%)
33.17% (G:5.63% B:0.08%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.293...+0.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 44 seconds
1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 7426 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



Finally, here is the initial position with the cube centered.







White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
5 point match
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBB-aD-B---bCB----c-abbb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.699
Player:
Opponent:
67.90% (G:16.64% B:1.49%)
32.10% (G:9.31% B:0.19%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.689...+0.709) - [98.2%]
Duration: 7 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout114/13 14/8eq: +0.684 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
68.25% (G:9.63% B:0.45%)
31.75% (G:4.20% B:0.05%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.674...+0.694) - [1.8%]
Duration: 9 minutes 43 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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