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1: Don't double 2: Just let him make the fucking two point

Posted By: Snua
Date: Monday, 6 January 2014, at 1:04 p.m.

First this stupid double:





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 139
pip: 157
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 106

Blue is Simon Barget
XGID=a--BbBC-C-A-bBb--a-cbBb---:0:0:1:00:106:139:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.87% (G:19.73% B:0.72%) 64.81% (G:19.44% B:0.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.13% (G:7.06% B:0.25%) 35.19% (G:6.96% B:0.24%)
Cubeless Equities +0.429 +0.851
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.645
Double/Take:+0.597 (-0.047)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.355)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.5%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Then this daft hit twice on the deuce and ace:





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 139
pip: 171
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 132
score: 106

Blue is Simon Barget
XGID=-aaBbBC-C-A-bBb--A-cbAb---:1:-1:1:61:106:139:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.XG Roller+17/10eq: +0.332
Player:
Opponent:
64.53% (G:23.46% B:1.30%)
35.47% (G:7.01% B:0.23%)
2.XG Roller+8/2* 2/1* eq: +0.252 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
61.47% (G:26.88% B:0.78%)
38.53% (G:10.52% B:0.63%)
3.2-ply17/11 10/9eq: +0.079 (-0.253)
Player:
Opponent:
56.35% (G:21.41% B:1.49%)
43.65% (G:11.68% B:0.58%)
4.2-ply17/11 6/5eq: +0.044 (-0.288)
Player:
Opponent:
55.37% (G:20.74% B:1.42%)
44.63% (G:12.18% B:0.61%)
5.2-ply10/3eq: +0.022 (-0.311)
Player:
Opponent:
53.99% (G:22.79% B:1.46%)
46.01% (G:13.35% B:0.51%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Two rolls later:





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 139
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 106

Blue is Simon Barget
XGID=-BaBbBC-B-a-bBb--A-cbAb---:1:-1:1:43:106:139:3:0:10
Blue to play 43

 

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