First this stupid double:

              
 
              
 | | White is eXtremeGammon
score: 139 pip: 157 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 136 score: 106
Blue is Simon Barget | |
XGID=a--BbBC-C-A-bBb--a-cbBb---:0:0:1:00:106:139:3:0:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in XG Roller+ | No double | Double/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 64.87% (G:19.73% B:0.72%) | 64.81% (G:19.44% B:0.69%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.13% (G:7.06% B:0.25%) | 35.19% (G:6.96% B:0.24%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.429 | +0.851 |
Cubeful Equities |
No double: | +0.645 | |
Double/Take: | +0.597 (-0.047) | |
Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.355) |
|
Best Cube action: No double / Take |
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.5% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Then this daft hit twice on the deuce and ace:

              
 
              
 | | White is eXtremeGammon
score: 139 pip: 171 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 132 score: 106
Blue is Simon Barget | |
XGID=-aaBbBC-C-A-bBb--A-cbAb---:1:-1:1:61:106:139:3:0:10 |
Blue to play 61 |
1. | XG Roller+ | 17/10 | eq: +0.332 |
| Player: Opponent: | 64.53% (G:23.46% B:1.30%) 35.47% (G:7.01% B:0.23%) | |
|
2. | XG Roller+ | 8/2* 2/1* | eq: +0.252 (-0.080) |
| Player: Opponent: | 61.47% (G:26.88% B:0.78%) 38.53% (G:10.52% B:0.63%) | |
|
3. | 2-ply | 17/11 10/9 | eq: +0.079 (-0.253) |
| Player: Opponent: | 56.35% (G:21.41% B:1.49%) 43.65% (G:11.68% B:0.58%) | |
|
4. | 2-ply | 17/11 6/5 | eq: +0.044 (-0.288) |
| Player: Opponent: | 55.37% (G:20.74% B:1.42%) 44.63% (G:12.18% B:0.61%) | |
|
5. | 2-ply | 10/3 | eq: +0.022 (-0.311) |
| Player: Opponent: | 53.99% (G:22.79% B:1.46%) 46.01% (G:13.35% B:0.51%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Two rolls later:

              
 
              
 | | White is eXtremeGammon
score: 139 pip: 162 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 116 score: 106
Blue is Simon Barget | |
XGID=-BaBbBC-B-a-bBb--A-cbAb---:1:-1:1:43:106:139:3:0:10 |
Blue to play 43 |