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1: Don't double 2: Just let him make the fucking two point

Posted By: Snua
Date: Monday, 6 January 2014, at 1:04 p.m.

First this stupid double:

 White is eXtremeGammon score: 139 pip: 157 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 136 score: 106 Blue is Simon Barget
XGID=a--BbBC-C-A-bBb--a-cbBb---:0:0:1:00:106:139:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

 Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 64.87% (G:19.73% B:0.72%) 64.81% (G:19.44% B:0.69%) Opponent Winning Chances: 35.13% (G:7.06% B:0.25%) 35.19% (G:6.96% B:0.24%) Cubeless Equities +0.429 +0.851 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.645 Double/Take: +0.597 (-0.047) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.355) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.5%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Then this daft hit twice on the deuce and ace:

 White is eXtremeGammon score: 139 pip: 171 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 132 score: 106 Blue is Simon Barget
XGID=-aaBbBC-C-A-bBb--A-cbAb---:1:-1:1:61:106:139:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.XG Roller+17/10eq: +0.332
 Player:Opponent: 64.53% (G:23.46% B:1.30%)35.47% (G:7.01% B:0.23%)
2.XG Roller+8/2* 2/1* eq: +0.252 (-0.080)
 Player:Opponent: 61.47% (G:26.88% B:0.78%)38.53% (G:10.52% B:0.63%)
3.2-ply17/11 10/9eq: +0.079 (-0.253)
 Player:Opponent: 56.35% (G:21.41% B:1.49%)43.65% (G:11.68% B:0.58%)
4.2-ply17/11 6/5eq: +0.044 (-0.288)
 Player:Opponent: 55.37% (G:20.74% B:1.42%)44.63% (G:12.18% B:0.61%)
5.2-ply10/3eq: +0.022 (-0.311)
 Player:Opponent: 53.99% (G:22.79% B:1.46%)46.01% (G:13.35% B:0.51%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Two rolls later:

 White is eXtremeGammon score: 139 pip: 162 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 116 score: 106 Blue is Simon Barget
XGID=-BaBbBC-B-a-bBb--A-cbAb---:1:-1:1:43:106:139:3:0:10
Blue to play 43

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