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501 Essential Backgammon Problems #360 -- Rollout + Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Tuesday, 7 January 2014, at 4:59 p.m.

In Response To: 501 Essential Backgammon Problems #360 (Igor)

David Rennie nailed it. We would like to run when white has three checkers on her 4pt for then any non-double roll with both dice having 2 pips or more either double blots or gives us a double shot. When white has 2 checkers, we still stay back for then 62, 52, 42, 32, 61, 51, 41, 31, 21 gives us the same good opportunities.

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 22 Unlimited GameJacoby pip: 118 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBA-CBB-------------dABf-:1:1:1:32:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout17/4 5/3eq: -1.396
 Player:Opponent: 14.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)85.51% (G:70.75% B:3.35%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.400...-1.392) - [100.0%]Duration: 10.4 seconds
2.Rollout123/20 5/3eq: -1.427 (-0.031)
 Player:Opponent: 13.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)86.30% (G:73.94% B:1.84%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.431...-1.424) - [0.0%]Duration: 12.4 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74676194
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 19 Unlimited GameJacoby pip: 118 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBA-CBB-------------cABg-:1:1:1:32:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout123/20 5/3eq: -1.069
 Player:Opponent: 23.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)76.60% (G:62.35% B:1.12%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.074...-1.065) - [100.0%]Duration: 15.2 seconds
2.Rollout123/18eq: -1.105 (-0.035)
 Player:Opponent: 21.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)78.06% (G:63.03% B:0.78%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.110...-1.100) - [0.0%]Duration: 18.6 seconds
3.Rollout123/20 7/5eq: -1.127 (-0.057)
 Player:Opponent: 21.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)78.66% (G:63.29% B:1.32%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.132...-1.121) - [0.0%]Duration: 18.6 seconds
4.Rollout123/20 3/1eq: -1.246 (-0.177)
 Player:Opponent: 17.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)82.61% (G:65.97% B:1.16%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.252...-1.241) - [0.0%]Duration: 19.7 seconds
5.Rollout123/20 6/4eq: -1.262 (-0.193)
 Player:Opponent: 18.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)81.60% (G:69.53% B:1.66%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.269...-1.256) - [0.0%]Duration: 23.9 seconds
6.Rollout17/4 5/3eq: -1.297 (-0.227)
 Player:Opponent: 17.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)82.87% (G:68.41% B:2.86%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.301...-1.293) - [0.0%]Duration: 8.7 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74676194
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 16 Unlimited GameJacoby pip: 118 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBA-CBB-------------bABh-:1:1:1:32:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout17/4 5/3eq: -1.335
 Player:Opponent: 16.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)83.01% (G:72.64% B:2.45%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.340...-1.330) - [100.0%]Duration: 7.6 seconds
2.Rollout17/5 7/4eq: -1.435 (-0.100)
 Player:Opponent: 13.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)86.34% (G:74.60% B:2.44%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.439...-1.431) - [0.0%]Duration: 10.6 seconds
3.Rollout17/4 6/4eq: -1.468 (-0.133)
 Player:Opponent: 13.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)87.00% (G:76.27% B:2.54%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.473...-1.464) - [0.0%]Duration: 9.6 seconds
4.Rollout17/4 3/1eq: -1.512 (-0.177)
 Player:Opponent: 11.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)88.87% (G:75.65% B:2.39%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.516...-1.508) - [0.0%]Duration: 9.1 seconds
5.Rollout123/20 5/3eq: -1.515 (-0.180)
 Player:Opponent: 11.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)88.27% (G:79.51% B:0.80%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.520...-1.511) - [0.0%]Duration: 6.6 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74676194
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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