David Rennie nailed it. We would like to run when white has three checkers on her 4pt for then any nondouble roll with both dice having 2 pips or more either double blots or gives us a double shot. When white has 2 checkers, we still stay back for then 62, 52, 42, 32, 61, 51, 41, 31, 21 gives us the same good opportunities.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 22  Unlimited Game Jacoby  pip: 118 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=BBACBBdABf:1:1:1:32:0:0:1:0:10 
Blue to play 32 
1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4 5/3  eq: 1.396 
 Player: Opponent:  14.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 85.51% (G:70.75% B:3.35%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (1.400...1.392)  [100.0%] Duration: 10.4 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  23/20 5/3  eq: 1.427 (0.031) 
 Player: Opponent:  13.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 86.30% (G:73.94% B:1.84%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (1.431...1.424)  [0.0%] Duration: 12.4 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74676194 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 19  Unlimited Game Jacoby  pip: 118 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=BBACBBcABg:1:1:1:32:0:0:1:0:10 
Blue to play 32 
1.  Rollout^{1}  23/20 5/3  eq: 1.069 
 Player: Opponent:  23.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 76.60% (G:62.35% B:1.12%)  Conf.: ± 0.005 (1.074...1.065)  [100.0%] Duration: 15.2 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  23/18  eq: 1.105 (0.035) 
 Player: Opponent:  21.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 78.06% (G:63.03% B:0.78%)  Conf.: ± 0.005 (1.110...1.100)  [0.0%] Duration: 18.6 seconds 

3.  Rollout^{1}  23/20 7/5  eq: 1.127 (0.057) 
 Player: Opponent:  21.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 78.66% (G:63.29% B:1.32%)  Conf.: ± 0.005 (1.132...1.121)  [0.0%] Duration: 18.6 seconds 

4.  Rollout^{1}  23/20 3/1  eq: 1.246 (0.177) 
 Player: Opponent:  17.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 82.61% (G:65.97% B:1.16%)  Conf.: ± 0.005 (1.252...1.241)  [0.0%] Duration: 19.7 seconds 

5.  Rollout^{1}  23/20 6/4  eq: 1.262 (0.193) 
 Player: Opponent:  18.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 81.60% (G:69.53% B:1.66%)  Conf.: ± 0.007 (1.269...1.256)  [0.0%] Duration: 23.9 seconds 

6.  Rollout^{1}  7/4 5/3  eq: 1.297 (0.227) 
 Player: Opponent:  17.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 82.87% (G:68.41% B:2.86%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (1.301...1.293)  [0.0%] Duration: 8.7 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74676194 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 16  Unlimited Game Jacoby  pip: 118 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=BBACBBbABh:1:1:1:32:0:0:1:0:10 
Blue to play 32 
1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4 5/3  eq: 1.335 
 Player: Opponent:  16.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 83.01% (G:72.64% B:2.45%)  Conf.: ± 0.005 (1.340...1.330)  [100.0%] Duration: 7.6 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  7/5 7/4  eq: 1.435 (0.100) 
 Player: Opponent:  13.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 86.34% (G:74.60% B:2.44%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (1.439...1.431)  [0.0%] Duration: 10.6 seconds 

3.  Rollout^{1}  7/4 6/4  eq: 1.468 (0.133) 
 Player: Opponent:  13.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 87.00% (G:76.27% B:2.54%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (1.473...1.464)  [0.0%] Duration: 9.6 seconds 

4.  Rollout^{1}  7/4 3/1  eq: 1.512 (0.177) 
 Player: Opponent:  11.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 88.87% (G:75.65% B:2.39%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (1.516...1.508)  [0.0%] Duration: 9.1 seconds 

5.  Rollout^{1}  23/20 5/3  eq: 1.515 (0.180) 
 Player: Opponent:  11.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 88.27% (G:79.51% B:0.80%)  Conf.: ± 0.004 (1.520...1.511)  [0.0%] Duration: 6.6 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74676194 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10