| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 141 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--B--BC-A---gF---b-db---A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:3 |
Blue to play 53 |
1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/8 | eq: -0.1269 |
| Player: Opponent: | 46.93% (G:4.02% B:0.09%) 53.07% (G:5.00% B:0.09%) | Conf.: ±0.0044 (-0.1313...-0.1225) - [100.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 53 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 24/16 | eq: -0.1735 (-0.0466) |
| Player: Opponent: | 45.68% (G:1.80% B:0.04%) 54.32% (G:3.91% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ±0.0041 (-0.1776...-0.1694) - [0.0%] Duration: 31 minutes 47 seconds |
|
3. | Rollout1 | 13/10 13/8 | eq: -0.1774 (-0.0506) |
| Player: Opponent: | 45.25% (G:6.47% B:0.10%) 54.75% (G:5.73% B:0.12%) | Conf.: ±0.0045 (-0.1819...-0.1730) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 09 seconds |
|
4. | Rollout1 | 8/3 6/3 | eq: -0.1853 (-0.0585) |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.97% (G:7.11% B:0.10%) 55.03% (G:5.82% B:0.11%) | Conf.: ±0.0047 (-0.1901...-0.1806) - [0.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 14 seconds |
|
|
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 54319442 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Jan-07 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 64P-65R-65R-31P-31P-65R-53-tm.xgp [S R47 D51 P58] "<=5 [S D37 P55 R57] "&e |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
64P-65R-65R-31P-31P-65R-53 — Unlimited Games Bot | Seed | Equity | Nacbracs | Link |
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc | 684133860 | –142.077 | [S D36 P43 R61] /0.360t | Taper_Mike |
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval | [XGR++ seed] | –117.0 | [S D37 P55 R57] "&e | Taper_Mike |
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR | 54319442 | –126.9 | [S R47 D51 P58] "<=5 | Taper_Mike (above) |
Key: D = Down [13/10, 13/8], P = Point [8/3, 6/3], R = Run [24/16], S = Split = Z = Reverse split [24/21, 13/8]
Explanation of nacbracs
In my analysis of this position, I completely overlooked D = 13/10, 13/8! It comes in second in the evals, and third in the rollout. D is better for the race than pointing on the 3pt.
Bob Koca points out that the Pottle will overtake splitting as Blue’s racing advantage increases. Moving one checker down to the 8pt didn’t do it, but moving two there did.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 141 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 132 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--B--BC-C---gD---b-db---A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue to play 53 |
1. | XG Roller++ | 24/16 | eq: +0.2722 |
| Player: Opponent: | 58.64% (G:2.77% B:0.04%) 41.36% (G:2.93% B:0.06%) | |
|
2. | XG Roller++ | 24/21 13/8 | eq: +0.2206 (-0.0516) |
| Player: Opponent: | 55.93% (G:8.70% B:0.13%) 44.07% (G:4.73% B:0.11%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Mike