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64P-65R-65R-31P-31P-65R-53 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 8 January 2014, at 6:44 p.m.

In Response To: 2Pornot2P - Pottle130716 Squint (svilo)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B--BC-A---gF---b-db---A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:3
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout124/21 13/8eq: -0.1269
Player:
Opponent:
46.93% (G:4.02% B:0.09%)
53.07% (G:5.00% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ±0.0044 (-0.1313...-0.1225) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout124/16eq: -0.1735 (-0.0466)
Player:
Opponent:
45.68% (G:1.80% B:0.04%)
54.32% (G:3.91% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ±0.0041 (-0.1776...-0.1694) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.1774 (-0.0506)
Player:
Opponent:
45.25% (G:6.47% B:0.10%)
54.75% (G:5.73% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ±0.0045 (-0.1819...-0.1730) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 09 seconds
4.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.1853 (-0.0585)
Player:
Opponent:
44.97% (G:7.11% B:0.10%)
55.03% (G:5.82% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ±0.0047 (-0.1901...-0.1806) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 14 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54319442
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-Jan-07
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
64P-65R-65R-31P-31P-65R-53-tm.xgp
[S R47 D51 P58] "<=5
[S D37 P55 R57] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

64P-65R-65R-31P-31P-65R-53 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc 684133860 –142.077 [S D36 P43 R61] /0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] –117.0 [S D37 P55 R57] "&e Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 54319442 –126.9 [S R47 D51 P58] "<=5 Taper_Mike (above)

Key: D = Down [13/10, 13/8], P = Point [8/3, 6/3], R = Run [24/16], S = Split = Z = Reverse split [24/21, 13/8]

Explanation of nacbracs

In my analysis of this position, I completely overlooked D = 13/10, 13/8! It comes in second in the evals, and third in the rollout. D is better for the race than pointing on the 3pt.

Bob Koca points out that the Pottle will overtake splitting as Blue’s racing advantage increases. Moving one checker down to the 8pt didn’t do it, but moving two there did.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B--BC-C---gD---b-db---A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.XG Roller++24/16eq: +0.2722
Player:
Opponent:
58.64% (G:2.77% B:0.04%)
41.36% (G:2.93% B:0.06%)
2.XG Roller++24/21 13/8eq: +0.2206 (-0.0516)
Player:
Opponent:
55.93% (G:8.70% B:0.13%)
44.07% (G:4.73% B:0.11%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Mike

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