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Rollout Result Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 9 January 2014, at 11:33 a.m.

In Response To: Non-Joker Aces From The Bar (Paul Weaver)

It is a very rare thing (it may happen on only a very few occasions in a lifetime) that one plays checkers that originate on four different points with double aces. What's wrong with my play of anchoring?

It is no bargain to anchor on the 21pt when you lead in the race and have your 6s blocked by your opponent's 10pt. Blue has to leave a direct deuce shot (plus combos) and forego unstacking his 6pt in order to make the 21pt anchor.

The best play duplicates 5s and gives White only five non-5s (11 33 44 31, all of which are great shots regardless of Blue's play) that point on her 5pt.

One time Stick suggested that the number of times a position is rolled out should be a multiple of 36. However, Stick failed to explain how to determine if a given number is a multiple of 36. Is a 1297 rollout better than a 1296 rollout? I think so. If increasing the number of trials in a rollout by one never increases its accuracy, then to be consistent, you have to believe that a rollout of 2592 is no better than a rollout of 1296. Profound concept: If a baby never grows from one second to the next, then it never grows over the course of its entire life.

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 154 5 point match pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-BBEa----cCAb-c-e-A---A:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout1Bar/24 21/20 14/13 6/5eq: +0.031
 Player:Opponent: 54.28% (G:20.43% B:0.72%)45.72% (G:10.23% B:0.86%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.025...+0.036) - [100.0%]Duration: 15 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout2Bar/24 14/13 6/4eq: +0.013 (-0.018)
 Player:Opponent: 53.73% (G:20.09% B:0.87%)46.27% (G:10.46% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.007...+0.019) - [0.0%]Duration: 15 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout3Bar/24 14/13 6/5(2)eq: +0.002 (-0.029)
 Player:Opponent: 53.47% (G:20.25% B:0.92%)46.53% (G:10.58% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.008...+0.012) - [0.0%]Duration: 5 minutes 04 seconds
4.Rollout3Bar/23 14/13 6/5eq: -0.029 (-0.059)
 Player:Opponent: 52.75% (G:19.38% B:0.73%)47.25% (G:10.77% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.038...-0.019) - [0.0%]Duration: 4 minutes 54 seconds
5.Rollout3Bar/21eq: -0.044 (-0.075)
 Player:Opponent: 52.23% (G:17.30% B:0.51%)47.77% (G:7.61% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.054...-0.034) - [0.0%]Duration: 5 minutes 16 seconds
1 3788 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 3787 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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