My 4 ply rollout agrees closely with Neil's XGR+ rollout.
Match players should note that the choice varies with score. And the best play appears to vary with even scores as well as uneven scores.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 157 | 3 point match | pip: 167 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-a----EaC---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:3:10 |
Blue to play 31 |
1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 8/7* | eq: -0.1183 |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.70% (G:13.05% B:1.18%) 52.30% (G:15.57% B:1.55%) | Conf.: ±0.0037 (-0.1220...-0.1146) - [76.6%] Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 8/5 6/5 | eq: -0.1201 (-0.0018) |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.22% (G:12.81% B:0.92%) 52.78% (G:13.88% B:1.19%) | Conf.: ±0.0033 (-0.1234...-0.1168) - [23.4%] Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes |
|
3. | Rollout2 | 13/10 8/7* | eq: -0.1489 (-0.0306) |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.17% (G:13.47% B:1.34%) 52.83% (G:17.18% B:2.51%) | Conf.: ±0.0098 (-0.1587...-0.1391) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 48 seconds |
|
|
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 59212064 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 59212064 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 157 | 5 point match | pip: 167 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-a----EaC---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:5:10 |
Blue to play 31 |
1. | Rollout1 | 8/5 6/5 | eq: -0.1060 |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.20% (G:12.76% B:0.56%) 52.80% (G:13.74% B:0.72%) | Conf.: ±0.0030 (-0.1089...-0.1030) - [99.9%] Duration: 3 hours 20 minutes |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 24/21 8/7* | eq: -0.1128 (-0.0068) |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.57% (G:12.87% B:0.68%) 52.43% (G:15.24% B:0.83%) | Conf.: ±0.0032 (-0.1160...-0.1096) - [0.1%] Duration: 4 hours 16 minutes |
|
3. | Rollout2 | 13/10 8/7* | eq: -0.1557 (-0.0497) |
| Player: Opponent: | 46.97% (G:13.22% B:0.75%) 53.03% (G:16.95% B:1.24%) | Conf.: ±0.0082 (-0.1639...-0.1475) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes |
|
|
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52795426 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52795426 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross