My 4 ply rollout agrees closely with Neil's XGR+ rollout.
Match players should note that the choice varies with score. And the best play appears to vary with even scores as well as uneven scores.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 157  3 point match  pip: 167 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=aEaCdEaceB:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:3:10 
Blue to play 31 
1.  Rollout^{1}  24/21 8/7*  eq: 0.1183 
 Player: Opponent:  47.70% (G:13.05% B:1.18%) 52.30% (G:15.57% B:1.55%)  Conf.: ±0.0037 (0.1220...0.1146)  [76.6%] Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes 

2.  Rollout^{1}  8/5 6/5  eq: 0.1201 (0.0018) 
 Player: Opponent:  47.22% (G:12.81% B:0.92%) 52.78% (G:13.88% B:1.19%)  Conf.: ±0.0033 (0.1234...0.1168)  [23.4%] Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes 

3.  Rollout^{2}  13/10 8/7*  eq: 0.1489 (0.0306) 
 Player: Opponent:  47.17% (G:13.47% B:1.34%) 52.83% (G:17.18% B:2.51%)  Conf.: ±0.0098 (0.1587...0.1391)  [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 48 seconds 


^{1} 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 59212064 Moves and cube decisions: 3ply
^{2} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 59212064 Moves and cube decisions: 3ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: RockwellKazaross
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 157  5 point match  pip: 167 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=aEaCdEaceB:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:5:10 
Blue to play 31 
1.  Rollout^{1}  8/5 6/5  eq: 0.1060 
 Player: Opponent:  47.20% (G:12.76% B:0.56%) 52.80% (G:13.74% B:0.72%)  Conf.: ±0.0030 (0.1089...0.1030)  [99.9%] Duration: 3 hours 20 minutes 

2.  Rollout^{1}  24/21 8/7*  eq: 0.1128 (0.0068) 
 Player: Opponent:  47.57% (G:12.87% B:0.68%) 52.43% (G:15.24% B:0.83%)  Conf.: ±0.0032 (0.1160...0.1096)  [0.1%] Duration: 4 hours 16 minutes 

3.  Rollout^{2}  13/10 8/7*  eq: 0.1557 (0.0497) 
 Player: Opponent:  46.97% (G:13.22% B:0.75%) 53.03% (G:16.95% B:1.24%)  Conf.: ±0.0082 (0.1639...0.1475)  [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes 


^{1} 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52795426 Moves and cube decisions: 3ply
^{2} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52795426 Moves and cube decisions: 3ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: RockwellKazaross