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It was really bye - forfeit - forfeit.

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Tuesday, 14 January 2014, at 11:11 p.m.

In Response To: It was really bye - forfeit - forfeit. (Bob Koca)

Bob, I consider the entire draw an element of luck. An element I would preferably like to minimize the effects of.

If you take my example, where you get 4 players in one half, and you get 8 players in the other half. Given that the players are not of the same strength, I recon that any player in the top half in addition to getting the advantage of a bye, also gains an advantage of having easier opposition on his way to the final (the "best of one player" in his QF, and the "best one of two players" in the SF). Where any player in the button half would be playing the "best one of two" in the QF, and the "best one of four" in the SF. If you distribute byes evenly, you also even out the expected strength of opposition.

So, I like to distribute the byes, thus making them a little less valuable.

In fact, this line of thought is from the concept of seeding strong players if you have a precise estimate of player strength (such as a precise ELO rating). Say you have a 32 player field, with 4 strong giants in it. If you could put these in each 8 player quarter-draw, you'd even out the distribution of strength expected from QFs and forward. Otherwise you could have a draw placing them so that one player would meet a giant each round to get to the finals, where as other players could have a draw not meeting any of the top 8 players at all, until the finals. I suppose this is the same kind of "draw luck" as getting a bye? Thus something we should try to eliminate to some degree if possible?

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