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My matches in New York Metropolitan Open 2014

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Saturday, 18 January 2014, at 7:49 p.m.

In Response To: My matches in New York Metropolitan Open 2014 (Christian Munk-Christensen)

>> I think it is pretty clear that there are very few adjustments going on and only minor adjustments. You don't adjust your way to a sub 3 pr.

Well, That was certainly why I posted the question for Mochy initially.

But his response was the complete opposite: He adjusts all the time!

I showed a move that I think was in alignment with this statement (the double hit double shot move), but the numbers in both the actual match, and from Mochy's explanation and estimates, didn't add up in my mind.

Mochy says (it was only an estimate), that he would be able to lower his PR about 0.1 if he didn't play to win, but played to get low PR instead... 0.1 is certainly not much - can't be many adjustments, and it must be more or less only checkerplay adjustments (typically cube adjustments have a bigger impact on PR).

I recall Stick (who's really advocating adjustments - smart guy!) having mentioned numbers of about 1-2 PR worse, and in individual matches even more than that.

------

I'm a firm believer that better understanding of these things is really what brings home the trophies. I have no clue how many tournaments Mochy wins, nor how many he plays, but something tells me, that he's doing worse than his "XG PR expectation", if you know what I mean. He's probably doing just fine, winning a lot, but I'd bet that he gets unlucky more often than he should.

I haven't examined many of Sticks or Coolrays matches either, but it could be the case that mr Fogerlund is (knowingly or unknowingly) better at this, thus have a higher than expected win-rate in the matches where he is a clear favorite, thus reaches more semis and finals, where he then looses more than 50% of his matches to players that are simply very strong. That would explain his high success over many years, perhaps without the backing of a extraterrestrial low PR average (as sometimes debated here in the shadows of some threads).

As for Stick, there was hefty discussions about his online vs. real life PRs. One thing Stick mentioned, was that he never adjusts online. It could very well be the case, that he's actually doing a lot better than people realize, when playing real life matches. It's not my understanding that he's playing too many tournaments, so it's difficult to asses (or at least read out from actual results).

Stick (and fellow top-giants), if you're reading this, what is your assessment of Mochy's current PR output from live tournaments? Is it simply awesome unreal performance with the lowest ever seen error-rates? Or is it "too strong to be good"? Is an expected increase of 0.1 for adjustments when playing a mixed field anywhere near than enough?

Mochy, once again, I'm so impressed by your sheer low numbers - I'm just curious to know if that is the ultimate goal for a backgammon ace such as yourself.

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