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OLM 2014-01-22

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 23 January 2014, at 2:39 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 2014-01-22 (MishyPoo)

What am I missing?

Taking a risk in the opening to run to the outer board when you roll 64 makes sense when you are ahead in the race. In general, that same risk is a bad deal when all you get is a tie. That's why running with 64 on the opening move is perfectly fine at normal match scores, but running on the second roll with 65R-64 is not.

The same argument applies more forcefully when the roll is 63 rather than 64. At normal match scores, running on the first roll with 63 is not even recommended. It trails the split by about 0.013. On the second roll, it must be worse.

Here, we have the better board and can target all quadrants by splitting. If XG declines to hit, then we will have an opportunity to make an advanced anchor or else escape. And if XG chooses to hit, we will have a good chance to send a second checker back.

Mike

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