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Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 23 January 2014, at 5:17 a.m.

In Response To: Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG (Stick)

I posted this because I thought that a lot of people might overestimate how often Blue wins from here using their reference position of 5 off versus a closed board with perfect spares otherwise knows as the borderline take/pass decision for money winning ~22% of the time.

There are some major differences in the two positions which, although glaringly obvious, still didn't allow for anyone except Neil it seems, to accurately estimate the win percentage. Not in order of importance:

  • There are immediate shot leaving numbers. [62]
  • Next turn we (almost, [11]) never have a closed board. In our reference position we almost ([66 55 44 33]) always still have a closed board next turn.
  • There are a fair amount of numbers that leave two inner board points open for us immediately. (any six)
  • In addition, there's a funky number like [44] that leaves not only two open points but takes off no men in the process!
  • It is so very very hard for us to lose our market given all the above issues and the overall difficulty of bearing off with our spares all Funk & Wagnalled up. When we do lose our market on the rare occasion, it probably won't be by too much. For money from our reference position we not only lose our market waaaaaay more often but the market losers tend to be larger.
White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 38
11 point match
pip: 53
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBE-DB----------------de-:1:1:1:00:2:7:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 56.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 43.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.120 +0.369
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.475±0.004 (+0.472..+0.479)
Redouble/Take:+0.369 (-0.107)±0.003 (+0.365..+0.372)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.525)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89527622
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4.2 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Stick

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