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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Saturday, 25 January 2014, at 3:57 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

White is a little awkward bearing in, most 5s don't play well (51 is OK), 65 and 66 forces shots without a prime. Plus that Black has the game winning chances from being on the bar with a single guy and a closed board against a bear-off, say 6%. OTB I would not try to quantify as below, would judge that this looks 9%-ish and then judge the strength of my opponent.

Attempt at quantitative analysis: If you start from the basic close out GWC you can add for say 1% for 66 and 66 (happens 1 time out of 12, say that black has 18% GWC after that on average, from which you'd need to deduct the basic 6%), 1% for other awkward 5s, and 0.5% for the awkward spare position and another 0.5% for the need to still get the close out with little time. So I'd get around 9% GWC for Black, which looks about right.

So looks technically like a double and a small drop.

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