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Rollout and comments

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 27 January 2014, at 3:22 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (John O'Hagan)

I had this position recently vs. XGR+. OTB I estimated my redoubling window from ~8% to ~56% which is close to XG's actual figures. The D3 or higher & no double sequence alone is > 8% so the position's good enough to consider doubling. So is it correct to spin the cube? In this case, yes. The keys IMO are 1) You're in the doubling window 2) Your game-winning chances are exactly the same regardless of the position of the cube. I think it's axiomatic that you should always double or redouble whenever these two conditions exist. RO agrees with the redouble.

is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 3
13 point match
pip: 10
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-D-B--------------------c-:2:1:1:00:0:8:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 17.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 17.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 82.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 82.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities -0.651 -0.474
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.575 (-0.101)0.000 (-0.575..-0.575)
Redouble/Take:-0.4740.000 (-0.474..-0.474)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.474)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 0.3 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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