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Play 32 - 1296 - theories WANTED!

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Tuesday, 28 January 2014, at 6:35 p.m.

In Response To: Play 32 (Mr Majestyk)

We're going to need a bigger rollout. Interested in doing a longer rollout? May be some kind poster will oblige - it'll be worth it in the end.

For now, how about you guys take a crack at figuring out why 11/9* 9/6 comes out best based on this number of trials?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 187
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBbBbBBBa-AbB--A--dabA---:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32
1.Rollout111/9* 9/6eq: +0.148
Player:
Opponent:		55.56% (G:29.65% B:1.56%)
44.44% (G:8.28% B:0.34%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.133...+0.164) - [89.2%]
Duration: 16 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout116/13 11/9* eq: +0.132 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		55.30% (G:27.57% B:1.64%)
44.70% (G:7.82% B:0.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.116...+0.148) - [7.2%]
Duration: 14 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout116/11eq: +0.131 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		57.62% (G:22.92% B:0.74%)
42.38% (G:8.26% B:0.35%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.119...+0.143) - [3.4%]
Duration: 14 minutes 54 seconds
4.Rollout122/20* 16/13eq: +0.122 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		54.85% (G:28.41% B:1.65%)
45.15% (G:7.86% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.109...+0.134) - [0.2%]
Duration: 14 minutes 49 seconds
5.Rollout122/20* 20/17eq: +0.118 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		54.69% (G:28.45% B:1.80%)
45.31% (G:7.96% B:0.35%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.105...+0.131) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 55 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

NBM

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