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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 30 January 2014, at 6:39 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout Results Posted (Paul Weaver)

There's a reason we should let rollouts go until they reach 100% CI. I almost had this gripe in a few other recent posts but skipped it. People were quoting the difference in plays when there was still a ton of variance left. Variance is reported for a reason. Don't be too confident of your results until you have something significant. I am not confident where the results of my rollout will end up. All I knew is I saw Paul's rollout and disagreed with it so I put on my own, same settings but twice as many trials. Especially if you disagree with a play make sure to roll it out to significance. (and beyond!)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 165
9 point match
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--a-FAC--AcC---c-cc-A---:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout111/6 7/4* eq: -0.312
Player:
Opponent:		43.08% (G:13.25% B:1.02%)
56.92% (G:19.44% B:0.84%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.323...-0.301) - [77.1%]
Duration: 35 minutes 19 seconds
2.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.318 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		42.84% (G:14.05% B:0.91%)
57.16% (G:19.56% B:1.11%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.329...-0.307) - [22.9%]
Duration: 31 minutes 50 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81654656
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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