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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 31 January 2014, at 2:31 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout Results Posted (Stick)

A rule of thumb is that if the 95% confidence intervals overlap, the rollout needs to be extended.

Paul's rolloutStick's rollout
PlayEquityCIEquityCI
8/3 6/3-0.295± 0.016 (-0.312...-0.279)-0.318± 0.011 (-0.329...-0.307)
11/6 7/4*-0.322± 0.017 (-0.339...-0.305)-0.312± 0.011 (-0.323...-0.301)
Overlap = 0.007Overlap = 0.016

Notice that the overlap was larger in the rollout that was twice as long. It happens. Notice that the result of Stick's rollout for 8/3 6/3 of -0.318 is outside the 95% CI reported in Paul's rollout. That happens sometimes too.

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