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OLM 20140130
Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 1 February 2014, at 7:41 a.m.
In Response To: OLM 20140130 (HOMINID)
The hitting rolls ... are 61, 62, 22, 21, 11 , multiply the rolls by 5 to give a % = 25%
There's another, more accurate way that's hardly more difficult.
If one doublet hits, that's a 2.77% chance. Two doublets hitting is the same as one nondoublet hitting. So one nondoublet hitting is twice 2.77%, which is 5.55%. So two nondoublets hitting is twice 5.55%, which is 11.11%. So four nondoublets hitting is twice 11.11%, which is 22.22%.
61, 62, 21 and 22 11 are three nondoublets and two doublets, which is the equivalent of four nondoublets. Therefore, 22.22%.
Not that I do it that way, either, since I know that four nondoublets hitting is a 8/36 chance, which is 22.22%. It's also 9/36, which is 25%, less 1/36 or 2.77% for, again, 22.22%.

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