There isn't much left for me to discuss after Nack and Paul dissected the position. If this were a pure race white could take with no more than 14 pip deficit. The minimal contact left in the position favors blue. By how much? It depends on the strength of white's half of the board position. The weaker white's position the more aggressively blue can hit the white straggler. In the OP white has just enough for a thin take.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 135  Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver  pip: 126 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=BaDCBdDbaeb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 
Blue on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in Rollout  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  74.02% (G:9.09% B:0.09%)  74.27% (G:9.88% B:0.10%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  25.98% (G:1.56% B:0.04%)  25.73% (G:1.68% B:0.04%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.556  +1.136 
Cubeful Equities 
No double:  +0.832 (0.129)  ±0.005 (+0.827..+0.837) 
Double/Take:  +0.961  ±0.007 (+0.954..+0.969) 
Double/Pass:  +1.000 (+0.039) 

Best Cube action: Double / Take 
Rollout details 
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 86477631 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Double Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Take Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Duration: 7 minutes 34 seconds 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Keep the same take point but reduce white's recube power and it becomes a drop.
  White is Player 2
score: 2 pip: 135  7 point match  pip: 126 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=BaDCBdDbaeb:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10 
Blue on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in Rollout  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  73.72% (G:10.43% B:0.10%)  74.06% (G:10.62% B:0.10%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  26.28% (G:1.90% B:0.06%)  25.94% (G:1.88% B:0.07%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.561  +1.173 
Cubeful Equities 
No double:  +0.874 (0.126)  ±0.006 (+0.868..+0.881) 
Double/Take:  +1.046 (+0.046)  ±0.010 (+1.036..+1.056) 
Double/Pass:  +1.000 

Best Cube action: Double / Pass 
Rollout details 
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 27547115 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Double Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Take Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
The other way around  more recube power to white  is a clear take.
  White is Player 2
score: 2 pip: 135  7 point match  pip: 126 score: 4
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=BaDCBdDbaeb:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:7:10 
Blue on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in Rollout  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  74.10% (G:9.92% B:0.13%)  74.45% (G:9.86% B:0.36%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  25.90% (G:1.70% B:0.04%)  25.55% (G:1.76% B:0.04%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.583  +1.255 
Cubeful Equities 
No double:  +0.845 (0.088)  ±0.008 (+0.837..+0.853) 
Double/Take:  +0.933  ±0.012 (+0.921..+0.945) 
Double/Pass:  +1.000 (+0.067) 

Best Cube action: Double / Take 
Rollout details 
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 27547115 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Double Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Take Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Duration: 6 minutes 39 seconds 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Adding just one more checker in the zone for blue is enough to force white to drop.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 132  Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver  pip: 123 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=BaDCCcCabaeb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 
Blue on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in Rollout  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  75.46% (G:8.46% B:0.10%)  75.78% (G:9.98% B:0.13%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  24.54% (G:1.50% B:0.04%)  24.22% (G:1.68% B:0.05%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.579  +1.198 
Cubeful Equities 
No double:  +0.870 (0.130)  ±0.007 (+0.863..+0.877) 
Double/Take:  +1.037 (+0.037)  ±0.011 (+1.025..+1.048) 
Double/Pass:  +1.000 

Best Cube action: Double / Pass 
Rollout details 
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62901579 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Double Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Take Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Duration: 3 minutes 08 seconds 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
As for the other variants, let's see what changes if we start moving white straggler one pip back at a time.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 136  Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver  pip: 126 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=BaDCBdDbaeb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 
Blue on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in Rollout  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  74.36% (G:10.84% B:0.11%)  74.31% (G:12.12% B:0.12%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  25.64% (G:2.26% B:0.06%)  25.69% (G:2.44% B:0.08%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.573  +1.167 
Cubeful Equities 
No double:  +0.882 (0.118)  ±0.001 (+0.881..+0.883) 
Double/Take:  +1.001 (+0.001)  ±0.002 (+0.999..+1.003) 
Double/Pass:  +1.000 

Best Cube action: Double / Pass 
Rollout details 
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 86477631 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Double Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Take Decision confidence:  88.6% 
Duration: 5 hours 19 minutes 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
By moving white straggler one pip back we effectively made race deficit one pip more and it is now a borderline decision. Restoring the race deficit back to 9 pips gives a clear take.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 135  Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver  pip: 126 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=BaDCBdDabeb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 
Blue on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in Rollout  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  73.81% (G:10.25% B:0.09%)  73.84% (G:11.50% B:0.10%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  26.19% (G:2.24% B:0.06%)  26.16% (G:2.42% B:0.07%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.557  +1.136 
Cubeful Equities 
No double:  +0.852 (0.106)  ±0.008 (+0.843..+0.860) 
Double/Take:  +0.958  ±0.012 (+0.946..+0.969) 
Double/Pass:  +1.000 (+0.042) 

Best Cube action: Double / Take 
Rollout details 
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 27547115 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Double Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Take Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Duration: 4 minutes 15 seconds 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Moving it further to 23 and 24 points still keeps white in the race take window, but allows a more flexible game plan  stay back and harass blue or switch to a race if big numbers are rolled.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 138  Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver  pip: 126 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=aBDCBdDbaeb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 
Blue on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in Rollout  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  73.76% (G:10.83% B:0.12%)  74.18% (G:11.90% B:0.13%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  26.24% (G:2.76% B:0.06%)  25.82% (G:2.93% B:0.08%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.557  +1.148 
Cubeful Equities 
No double:  +0.876 (0.099)  ±0.005 (+0.871..+0.881) 
Double/Take:  +0.975  ±0.008 (+0.966..+0.983) 
Double/Pass:  +1.000 (+0.025) 

Best Cube action: Double / Take 
Rollout details 
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45820022 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Double Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Take Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Duration: 7 minutes 40 seconds 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 139  Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver  pip: 126 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=aBDCBdDbaeb:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 
Blue on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in Rollout  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  73.26% (G:9.92% B:0.15%)  73.47% (G:10.40% B:0.16%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  26.74% (G:3.07% B:0.07%)  26.53% (G:3.27% B:0.09%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.535  +1.083 
Cubeful Equities 
No double:  +0.852 (0.052)  ±0.007 (+0.845..+0.859) 
Double/Take:  +0.904  ±0.011 (+0.893..+0.915) 
Double/Pass:  +1.000 (+0.096) 

Best Cube action: Double / Take 
Rollout details 
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45820022 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Double Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Take Decision confidence:  100.0% 
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10