Big thanks to David and Nack for dissecting the position; I have learned a great deal from their explanations. From studying third rolls I have also noticed that XG does not like to bring a builder down to a point which is exactly 6 pips away from a made home board point; this might be another small factor why hit and split is better than hit and down with 63.
         
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--B-CaC---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 13/7* | eq: +0.381 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.11% (G:20.31% B:1.16%)
41.89% (G:11.40% B:0.65%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.373...+0.389) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 13/7* | eq: +0.342 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.23% (G:19.29% B:0.98%)
42.77% (G:10.71% B:0.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.333...+0.350) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 01 second |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36419517
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--B-CaC---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/7* | eq: +0.394 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.32% (G:19.52% B:1.06%)
41.68% (G:10.08% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.388...+0.400) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/10 13/7* | eq: +0.379 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.96% (G:20.39% B:1.16%)
42.04% (G:11.13% B:0.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.373...+0.385) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72233048
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10