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-2-3 WHY?

Posted By: svilo
Date: Monday, 10 February 2014, at 8:44 a.m.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 4
7 point match
pip: 6
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B------------------a-a--:0:0:-1:D:5:4:0:7:3
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 73.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 26.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.478 +1.006
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.278 (-0.722)
Double/Take:+1.006 (+0.006)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

In my medieval thinking -2-3 should take with 20% winning chances. If I drop I am 50%, if I take and lose I am 30% for the match. The new MET are even more gammonish so I could take with even less. But XG says "pass" here. WHY.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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