BGonline.org Forums

Game of small margins

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 14 February 2014, at 3:18 p.m.

In Response To: Game of small margins (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Misses in two rolls if our next roll is:	13/8 15/12	15/7	15/10 13/10
61	0	0	2
51	0	0	2
42	0	2	0
41	13	2	2
32	2	7	7
31	13	7	7
21	13	13	31
11	7	7	7
Total	48	38	58

Blue can play to bear off in two rolls because Blue is very likely to get two rolls. If Blue had to play to bear off in one roll 15/12 13/8 would be better than 15/7 (but the no better than 13/5), because it allows 33 to bear off. But that only saves the gammon when White rolls two good doublets and Blue rolls 33, which is only about a 27/46656 chance -- less than 1 time in 1296.

gnubg	6
One	61
Position ID: GwAA4Ns2QAIAAA Match ID: UomuAAAAAAAE

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	13/5	-1.4186
			0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 1.0000 0.9043 0.0000 -1.4186 -1.4186 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 735364406 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	15/12 13/8	-1.4186 ( +0.0000)
			0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 1.0000 0.9043 0.0000 -1.4186 -1.4186 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 735364406 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	15/7	-1.4297 ( -0.0111)
			0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 1.0000 0.9282 0.0000 -1.4297 -1.4297 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 735364406 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	15/10 13/10	-1.4297 ( -0.0111)
			0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 1.0000 0.9282 0.0000 -1.4297 -1.4297 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 735364406 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

15/7 will be best as long as White has 5 or more checkers:

gnubg	6
One	61
Position ID: PwAAgG/bAAkAAA Match ID: UomuAAAAAAAE

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	15/7	-1.1468
			0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 1.0000 0.3171 0.0000 -1.1468 -1.1468 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 735364406 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	15/12 13/8	-1.1478 ( -0.0010)
			0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 1.0000 0.3193 0.0000 -1.1478 -1.1478 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 735364406 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/5	-1.1547 ( -0.0080)
			0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 1.0000 0.3343 0.0000 -1.1547 -1.1547 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 735364406 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	15/10 13/10	-1.1567 ( -0.0099)
			0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 1.0000 0.3385 0.0000 -1.1567 -1.1567 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 735364406 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Game of small margins
  Keene -- Thursday, 13 February 2014, at 5:33 a.m.
  • Game of small margins
    Keene -- Thursday, 13 February 2014, at 11:01 p.m.
    • Game of small margins
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 February 2014, at 11:36 p.m.
  • Game of small margins
    HOMINID -- Friday, 14 February 2014, at 11:09 a.m.
  • Game of small margins
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 14 February 2014, at 11:44 a.m.
    • Game of small margins
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 14 February 2014, at 11:45 a.m.
      • Game of small margins
        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 14 February 2014, at 3:18 p.m.
  • Game of small margins
    Mochy -- Friday, 14 February 2014, at 5:02 p.m.