This is just a blind spot on my part. It felt urgent to get off the ace point. It wasn't. With XG Roller++ so clear, I didn't bother to roll it out.
Jeremy pointed out to me how well Mochy's criteria help here. See http://www.slideshare.net/masayukimochizuki1/visualizing-the-formation. White is stacked, has made a deep inner board point and his spares are deep. He is blitzing, not priming and there is no need to run.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 127 | | 7 point match | pip: 143
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---B--DCbB--cB---a-eb-b-B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 9/4 7/4 | eq: -0.629 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.56% (G:8.86% B:0.28%)
65.44% (G:17.56% B:0.77%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 7/4 7/2 | eq: -0.814 (-0.185) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.81% (G:7.03% B:0.21%)
69.19% (G:18.12% B:1.06%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 9/6 9/4 | eq: -0.816 (-0.187) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.27% (G:6.10% B:0.17%)
69.73% (G:16.52% B:0.73%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 24/16 | eq: -0.828 (-0.199) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.69% (G:6.66% B:0.25%)
67.31% (G:23.13% B:0.64%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2