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Rollout and comments

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 19 February 2014, at 2:14 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

I had the dark checkers the other day vs. XGR+. It doubled here and I took. Should have passed though. The reason I took was that if I made the mistake of auto recubing on my next roll my tp would be my MWC at 2a-4a (33.13% accd to XG). I figured if I handled the cube more reasonably that I could problably take with 2-3% less than the auto recube tp. My experience is that a 2-3% reduction from the auto cube tp is usually about right. I thought I could win this 30-31% of the time, so I took the cube. My winning chances are in this range but it's still not quite a take.

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 166
5 point match
pip: 124
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=aa--CBBbCAA-cB---b-bbA-b--:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.72% (G:37.62% B:3.35%) 69.07% (G:39.62% B:5.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.28% (G:6.48% B:0.50%) 30.93% (G:6.71% B:0.73%)
Cubeless Equities +1.032 +1.763
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.910 (-0.090)0.015 (+0.895..+0.925)
Double/Take:+1.025 (+0.025)0.021 (+1.004..+1.046)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.0%
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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