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Rollout Results Posted, Brief Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 19 February 2014, at 4:40 p.m.

In Response To: Cube Decision and Subsequent Checker Play (Paul Weaver)

Position 1. Cube Action.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 95
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-AaD-bBDB-a--B-----bcb-ca-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.87% (G:10.63% B:0.19%) 68.78% (G:11.19% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.13% (G:5.07% B:0.10%) 31.22% (G:5.27% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.434 +0.872
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6820.007 (+0.675..+0.689)
Double/Take:+0.667 (-0.015)0.009 (+0.658..+0.676)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.318)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.3%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2. Checker Play.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 95
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-AaD-bBDB-a--B-----bcb-ca-:0:0:1:55:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout113/8(2) 6/1(2)eq: +0.759
Player:
Opponent:
70.67% (G:7.26% B:0.04%)
29.33% (G:3.61% B:0.08%)
Conf.: 0.011 (+0.748...+0.771) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds
2.Rollout113/3(2)eq: +0.674 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
68.91% (G:8.65% B:0.07%)
31.09% (G:3.67% B:0.09%)
Conf.: 0.011 (+0.663...+0.685) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 26 seconds
3.Rollout17/2*(2) 6/1(2)eq: +0.665 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
67.73% (G:13.38% B:0.09%)
32.27% (G:5.03% B:0.13%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.656...+0.673) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds
4.Rollout113/8(2) 7/2*(2) eq: +0.632 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:
69.70% (G:10.59% B:0.18%)
30.30% (G:4.36% B:0.08%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.626...+0.637) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.5 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3. Shows position after best play. This play looks bizarre, but looks ain't everything. I admit I did not consider this play over the board, even after posting a position here a couple of weeks ago in which the best play was breaking the 6pt. Moral: ALWAYS consider a play that involves breaking the 6pt.

Blue's only numbers that leave a shot are 53 63. At first, it may appear that Blue has 9 numbers that point on White's blot. In reality, Blue's chance of pointing on White's blot is far greater than 9/36 = 25%, when you take into account that Blue will often have more than one roll to do it. Similarly, Blue has 8 numbers (21 43 11 22 33 44) that make either the 6pt or the 8pt, but his chance of rolling one of these is far greater than 8/36.

Take a look at the timing. In many variations, White will run out of time and have to break her board or leave her anchor, both of which reduce her winning chances.

This play is fugly (hope I can borrow Stick's word without being accused of plagiarism), but the other plays are even fuglier.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 75
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-CaD-b-DD-a--------bcb-ca-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 30.73% (G:3.97% B:0.12%) 30.86% (G:4.01% B:0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 69.27% (G:9.10% B:0.14%) 69.14% (G:8.14% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities -0.437 -0.848
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.667
Double/Beaver:-2.000 (-1.333)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.667)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.8%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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