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52S-43X-53Z-42@-63R-33O-32T-41P-431-51I-42 (four rollout results)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 22 February 2014, at 10:48 p.m.

In Response To: 62S-62D-51D-53P-63 (Nack Ballard)

		White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 135 score: 0 Blue is peever
XGID=-Aa--bE-E---bC-b-b-bc---aA:1:1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Rollout #1: [H %19 T25] "<=1

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 6/2*	eq: -0.047
	Player: Opponent: 43.61% (G:10.08% B:0.32%) 56.39% (G:18.44% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.056...-0.037) - [98.8%] Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 8/4	eq: -0.065 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 43.78% (G:11.51% B:0.38%) 56.22% (G:21.61% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.079...-0.052) - [1.2%] Duration: 4 minutes 16 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/21 8/6	eq: -0.072 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 43.55% (G:11.51% B:0.42%) 56.45% (G:22.19% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.083...-0.061) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 135 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Aa--bE-E---bC-b-b-bc---aA:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Rollout #2: [T H25 %26] "<=1

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21 8/6	eq: -0.292
	Player: Opponent: 44.08% (G:11.65% B:0.38%) 55.92% (G:21.40% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.307...-0.277) - [98.2%] Duration: 41 minutes 17 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 6/2*	eq: -0.316 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 43.84% (G:10.23% B:0.32%) 56.16% (G:18.48% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.331...-0.301) - [1.1%] Duration: 45 minutes 18 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/23 8/4	eq: -0.317 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 43.84% (G:11.54% B:0.38%) 56.16% (G:21.11% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.332...-0.303) - [0.7%] Duration: 41 minutes 21 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 29045956 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The upper left diagram of this post shows the top three moves of Paul's original rollout result) of the position 52S-43X-53Z-42@-63R-33O-32T-41P-431-51I-42. To its right, in this post (you might have to widen your window so that my diagrams appear side by side), is the first 1k rollout result that I ran of the same position. Noting that different plays "won "(H in the first rollout, T in the second), I ran another 1k rollout—see lower left—and this time a third play (%) won. Aargh.

I did only those two 1k rollouts. Possibly, the #1, #2 and #3 results are all outliers, though the odds are against it. (At the same time, I'm sure that the H move would top the plurality, and probably the majority, of 1k rollouts.) I invite others to run their own experiments.

I then ran a much longer rollout, the result of which appears in the lower right.

Here is a nacbracs summary of the four independent rollout results:

........Rollout #1: ....[H .%19 .T25]. "<=1
........Rollout #2: ....[T .H25 .%26] ."<=1
........Rollout #3: ....[% .T12 .H24] ."<=1
........Long rollout: ....[H .%3 .T4] ."<=58

H = Hit (bar/23 6/2*), % = alt slot (bar/23 8/4), T = sTack/Tower (bar/21 8/6).

Nactation tutorial
Explanation of nacbracs

I hate to cramp anyone's style, as I realize there is a tradeoff of CPU time, but a lot of bgonliners see and learn from posted results. I'm only one voice, but I urge posters to extend middle game or (especially) early game rollouts to more than 1k trials. IMO, any move worth rolling out at all is worth rolling to at least 5k, even a weak move. If (say) a checker play that is reported to be an error of .03 is actually an error of .06, mentally assimilating the reported result throws off our intuitions, just as happens when (now and then) a play that is reported to be an error of .01 is actually best by .02.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 135 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Aa--bE-E---bC-b-b-bc---aA:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Rollout #3: [% T12 H24] "<=1

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 8/4	eq: -0.299
	Player: Opponent: 44.13% (G:11.45% B:0.39%) 55.87% (G:21.07% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.315...-0.283) - [85.9%] Duration: 14 minutes 56 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21 8/6	eq: -0.311 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 43.96% (G:11.73% B:0.43%) 56.04% (G:21.34% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.324...-0.297) - [13.4%] Duration: 15 minutes 02 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/23 6/2*	eq: -0.323 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 43.81% (G:9.69% B:0.30%) 56.19% (G:18.28% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.338...-0.309) - [0.7%] Duration: 17 minutes 15 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 81920408 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 135 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Aa--bE-E---bC-b-b-bc---aA:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Long rollout: [H %3 T4] "<=58

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 6/2*	eq: -0.309
	Player: Opponent: 43.89% (G:10.05% B:0.30%) 56.11% (G:18.36% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.312...-0.307) - [97.8%] Duration: 19 hours 01 minute
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 8/4	eq: -0.313 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 43.98% (G:11.48% B:0.38%) 56.02% (G:21.02% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.315...-0.311) - [1.7%] Duration: 16 hours 40 minutes
3.	Rollout1	Bar/21 8/6	eq: -0.314 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 43.87% (G:11.61% B:0.42%) 56.13% (G:21.55% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.316...-0.312) - [0.4%] Duration: 16 hours 26 minutes
1 58000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 33134295 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Two Tough Plays (53P-52D-62D-63)
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 17 February 2014, at 5:51 p.m.
  • Two Tough Plays (53P-52D-62D-63)
    garyo -- Monday, 17 February 2014, at 7:32 p.m.
    • Two Tough Plays (53P-52D-62D-63)
      Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 18 February 2014, at 12:00 a.m.
  • Two Tough Plays (53P-52D-62D-63)
    ah_clem -- Monday, 17 February 2014, at 8:27 p.m.
  • Two Tough Plays (53P-52D-62D-63)
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 18 February 2014, at 2:55 a.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 18 February 2014, at 10:40 a.m.
    • Rollout Results Posted
      Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 18 February 2014, at 10:49 a.m.
  • 62S-62D-51D-53P-63
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 19 February 2014, at 9:32 a.m.
    • 52S-43X-53Z-42@-63R-33O-32T-41P-431-51I-42 (four rollout results)
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 22 February 2014, at 10:48 p.m.
    • 62S-62D-51Z-53P-63 — Correcting Nactation
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 27 October 2014, at 5:34 a.m.
      • 62S-62D-51 — Nactation
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 29 October 2014, at 1:55 a.m.