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OLM 2014 52S-64 Analysis

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 27 February 2014, at 4:37 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 2014-02-25 ROLLOUT (Casper Van der Tak)

Casper: I knew that 13/3* was right, and I still am not sure that I completely know why.

Uh oh. I bookmarked your explanation as one of the good ones!

Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3

by Casper Van der Tak


I remember many years ago ('87 I think) discussing some of the replies to 13/8 24/22 with Gerard Duguet-Grasser. He advocated loose hits on many of the replies, although he was not sure at the time. I think, with the 64, the motivations for the 13/3* loose hit are:

  • Bad 6s from the bar
  • All else has reduced in value. For example: In the case of 24/14, more numbers hit than on the opening roll, a stronger attack compared to after 64 (24/14) on the opening roll, and no race lead. 24/18 13/9 is severely reduced in value because of (among others) the direct shot at the checker on the 9. The only play that did not greatly reduce in value is 8/2 6/2, but some of the attractions of it are gone - 2s establish an anchor in front of the point, no bad aces in reply.
  • The loose hit slots the 3, which is useful.

Compare this with 52S 63: If you hit loose, any 6 to go with that would give your opponent good 6s from the bar.

This post by David Rockwell adds a bit more.

Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3

by David Rockwell


Casper's discussion of sixes from the bar is right on point.

Note also that hitting has the usual value of a tempo play. It is more common to hit on a lower point when the opponent has more point making numbers than he does after 52S. For example:

41S-43X (Hit and split 24-21, 6-2*)

and 41S-54X (24-20, 6-1*)

are both best or very close. Left alone, almost everything makes a point somewhere after 41S, so the tempo is very valuable. Here there are far fewer point making numbers, so the value of the tempo is less. But, you still take away the point after 31, 42, 53 and 61. Note that the hit does not prevent opener from making a point with doublets. But, it does take away opener's ability to make TWO points with doublets which is particularly valuable with four on the eight point allowing that point to be retained. So, hitting also gains when opener responds with 11 or 33.

Combine the value of the tempo with the poor entering sixes that are created and you have a better move than running or making the low value deuce point.


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