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When XG is wrong

Posted By: Igor
Date: Thursday, 27 February 2014, at 11:59 p.m.

In Response To: When XG is wrong (phil simborg)

I'm no expert, but one area where you can never trust XGR++ evaluations is backgame cubes. Just one example to illustrate the idea:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbEDF--------a---bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.02% (G:36.05% B:9.17%) 58.82% (G:35.38% B:9.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 41.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.653 +1.244
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8790.006 (+0.873..+0.886)
Double/Take:+0.858 (-0.021)0.011 (+0.848..+0.869)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.121)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.0%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81232284
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 hours 43 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbEDF--------a---bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.88% (G:36.75% B:9.43%) 61.53% (G:37.44% B:9.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 38.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.679 +1.397
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.956 (-0.044)
Double/Take:+1.106 (+0.106)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

That, in particular, brings a question of how you estimate players' PR in a match that involved backgames? It would be way off unless you apply strong settings rollouts.

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