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OLM 20140302A The Dilly Builders -- Consultation

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 3 March 2014, at 3:28 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140302A The Dilly Builders -- Consultation (Jason Lee)

I'm back on the ice, so we're now skating at full strength. Apologies for letting the Tapirs have a power play immediately after the face-off, but it appears the Dilly Builders have already scored a short-handed goal in my absence. Good work!

As for the play at hand, it's a safe vs bold decision and the signals are mixed. Race lead says safe, the better board says bold. So, I'm going to apply Simborg's law and ask: what does our opponent least want to see? Were I playing on the other side, I'd breathe a sigh of relief if we made the ace point instead of hitting.

Then, once we've decided to hit 20/16 is anti-positional; if we're going to attack, attack. Passively fiddling with a runner instead of bringing a 10th checker into the zone just seems like slip-dicking around. 13/9 is much more >i>to the point.

Yeah, 62 and 53 are nightmare rolls, but that's only a 1-in-9 prop. The other thirteen ways for them to shake a 5 are undesirable but still leave us in the driver's seat. 16 hardly helps them at all. 11 is annoying, but it's annoying whatever we play.

One thing to keep in mind is that with the made 2-point gammons are not that frequent, even with a man on the bar & 10 checkers in the zone. But the hit & down play unstacks both bloated points with tempo, and I think that makes it the DMP play anyway.

13/9 6/5*

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