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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: Keene
Date: Monday, 3 March 2014, at 6:10 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

So, ATS, you are about 22% here. If you RD and lose, its probably an average of 7pts (most losses are gammons, so thats match. If you dont RD and lose (say 3pts), then you are about 9%. If you dont RD and win then its probably 2pts (cash), which is 30%, if you do RD and win, then you are 39%. Risking 22% to gain 17%. So, 22/39 ~ 55% is when you start to think about it.

Are you 55% here? Probably not.. But.. all 6s plus 51, so 13/36, of which you will likely win 10-11/13. On the misses, you probably hit a checker another 5-8% of the time, so 1 or 2 out of the remaining 23 - thats a total of 11-13 wins out of 36. Not the 19 wins you need. In fact, well short.

Something must surely have gone wrong in my calculations, as this doesnt look too close. NRD / Take

I think you need to move the score up to 9-0 or 10-0 to make this a worthwhile redouble. Perhaps a pushy 8-0, but at 6-0/13, its not enough.

Cubing from a lopsided score (either side) is an area that I could use more work in, so I look forward to other comments.

Keene

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