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Cube action ATS?
Posted By: Keene
Date: Monday, 3 March 2014, at 6:10 p.m.
In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)
So, ATS, you are about 22% here. If you RD and lose, its probably an average of 7pts (most losses are gammons, so thats match. If you dont RD and lose (say 3pts), then you are about 9%. If you dont RD and win then its probably 2pts (cash), which is 30%, if you do RD and win, then you are 39%. Risking 22% to gain 17%. So, 22/39 ~ 55% is when you start to think about it.
Are you 55% here? Probably not.. But.. all 6s plus 51, so 13/36, of which you will likely win 1011/13. On the misses, you probably hit a checker another 58% of the time, so 1 or 2 out of the remaining 23  thats a total of 1113 wins out of 36. Not the 19 wins you need. In fact, well short.
Something must surely have gone wrong in my calculations, as this doesnt look too close. NRD / Take
I think you need to move the score up to 90 or 100 to make this a worthwhile redouble. Perhaps a pushy 80, but at 60/13, its not enough.
Cubing from a lopsided score (either side) is an area that I could use more work in, so I look forward to other comments.
Keene

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