Kauder Paradox 5184 Game Snowie Rollout
Posted By: ah_clem In Response To: Kauder Paradox 5184 Game Snowie Rollout (leobueno)
Date: Tuesday, 4 March 2014, at 2:36 p.m.
In Response To: Kauder Paradox 5184 Game Snowie Rollout (leobueno)
Please explain what's going on in this position. Thanks.
This is an example from 8 years ago of why the Jacoby rule is stupid.
Blue is not even favored to win (44% GWC) but since he has significant gammon chances it's to his advantage to turn the cube so that gammons count. Without Jacoby it would be a massive blunder to cube.
The question is whether white should beaver. XG rollout confirms it's a beaver, but it's very close.
Note that if blue fans (16/36) white has a cash / borderline TG.
White is Player 2
Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBC--------Acaacbbba-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 44.79% (G:26.39% B:0.59%) 45.18% (G:27.67% B:0.61%) Opponent Winning Chances: 55.21% (G:3.44% B:0.08%) 54.82% (G:3.31% B:0.06%) Cubeless Equities +0.130 +0.305 Cubeful Equities No double: -0.222 (-0.213) ±0.000 (-0.222..-0.222) Double/Beaver: -0.009 ±0.012 (-0.021..+0.003) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.009) Best Cube action: Double / Beaver Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Beaver Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 48.3 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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