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64R-42X-F-54Z-41V-21

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 5 March 2014, at 4:00 a.m.

In Response To: 64R-42X-F-54Z-41V-21 (Igor)

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 163 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 152 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-a-E-D--AeC---c-eB-----:0:0:1:12:0:0:3:0:10

64R-42X-F-54Z-41V-21

64R-42X-F-54Z-41V-21

Without much thought, I am sure I would make the hit, H = 11/10 6/4*, over the board. Blue has a nice anchor, so getting hit back is certainly no disaster. After Blue hits, moving 11/10 should be better than advancing deeper into the inner board. Leaving the blot on a point Blue wants to make, and bringing a builder into direct range, should be worth the extra shots that entails.

Posed as a problem in which H is wrong, my first reaction was to make the 11pt. After all, Blue is ahead in the race, so he does not have to attack. The difficulty is finding an ace. 6/5 is the logical candidate, but it is not very appealing.

That led me to D = 11/8. The candlesticks look horrible, but when I counted blotting numbers in a similar position recently, I was surprised to discover the result. After playing D, Blue can play 24 numbers safely next turn: any doublet, plus 61, 31, 42, 53, 64, 52, 43, 41, and 32. If White makes an anchor, there will probably be even more ways to play safe, provided Blue is willing to dump blots behind the anchor.

Given the hint that your chosen play was only third-best, my guess is that the top three rank as follows:

1. D (Down) = 11/8
2. i = 6/4*/3
3. H (Hit) = 11/10, 6/4*

Two other plays that might be close are \$ (Slot) = 13/11 6/5 and % = 13/11 8/7.

Mike

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