Pretty standard position you chose. (that's what she said)
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| XGID=-a---bECC-B-d-B--b-cab----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.85% (G:14.45% B:0.36%) | 69.13% (G:14.34% B:0.36%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.15% (G:6.02% B:0.21%) | 30.87% (G:6.04% B:0.22%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.463 | +0.934 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.721 | ±0.007 (+0.714..+0.728) |
| Double/Take: | +0.711 (-0.010) | ±0.009 (+0.702..+0.720) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.279) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.4% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13976573 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 95.8% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 5 hours 51 minutes | ||
A fairly standard 20pt anchor game with the rear guard for coverage. As we should know by now, this increases the wins for the taker but in return jacks up the gammon chances for the doubler. Even though White has a great spare distribution and significant racing lead it's best to hold off a turn. Why is that? Think about your market losing sequences. They are few and far between. Even if you clear the 14pt cleanly it will be a close call on the take/pass decision next turn for Black since he always has the checker on the 24pt for contact and his forward position will be good enough to hit and contain for the rest of the game. If instead we use our spares to make the 4pt for example we have made a significant improvement but still have the outfield point to clear and Black still has the rear guard. There is very little market loss available so why not wait a turn, make one of these improvements and double then when it will almost always still be D/T. |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10